The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows National slightly up - but still below 30%, and Labour slightly down, with the coalition parties comfortably able to form a government.
By Lillian Hanley of RNZ
Support has risen for all coalition parties, while support has dropped for all opposition parties.
National is up 1.4 points to 29.8% compared to the last poll in March, while New Zealand First is up 3.9 points to 13.6% and ACT is up 1.5 points to 9%.
This is the highest level of support for New Zealand First since the TPU-Curia poll started in November 2021.
Labour is down 1.0 points to 33.4%, while the Greens are down 2.7 points to 7.8%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 2.6%.
On these numbers, National gains 1 seat to 37, New Zealand First gains 4 seats to 17, and ACT gains 1 seat to 11.
The combined projected seats for the coalition parties increases 6 to 65, comfortably forming a government. This is the best equal result for the government since December 2024 in this poll.
Labour drops 2 seats to 42, the Greens drop 3 seats to 10, and Te Pāti Māori drops 1 seat to 3. The combined seats for the Opposition bloc drops 6 to 55.
Taxpayers' Union spokesperson Tory Relf said the poll showed a clear shift back towards the government bloc with their best result since December 2024 in this polling "driven by a record result for New Zealand First, and increases in support for both National and ACT".
"But it not a clear cut thing. Even on these numbers, the ultimate decision on who could form a government rests with New Zealand First."
At the start of March, the Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll had National on 28.4% - down nearly three percentage points from the month before. The latest RNZ/Reid Research poll had the party on 30.8%, also trending downwards.
Both March polls had National behind Labour, which polled 34.4%in the Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll and 35.6% according to RNZ/Reid Research.
The latest Roy Morgan poll, released at the end of March, had National on 26.5% and Labour on 34%.
Recent polling has generally had support for the left (Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori) and right (National, ACT and NZ First) blocs finely balanced.
The general election is scheduled to be held on November 7.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders (700 by phone and 300 online) and is weighted to the overall adult population.
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
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