Forecasters monitoring 'strengthening' tropical cyclone system

MetService Meteorologist Heather Keats said it was still too early to lock in the track, but parts of the North Island may be in line for heavy rain and strong winds. (Source: Breakfast)

MetService says it is keeping a watchful eye over the current weather systems ahead of "strengthening" tropical cyclones forming in the Pacific.

Some new heavy rain watches and warnings were issued this afternoon across the country, including an orange heavy rain warning for Bay of Plenty west of Whakatāne, including Rotorua, into Wednesday evening.

However, forecasters said this system was separate from the two cyclones currently sitting in the South Pacific.

MetService meteorologist John Law said Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (TC Vaianu) was currently a category three tropical cyclone sitting to the west of Fiji, with winds in the centre exceeding 150km/h.

"TC Vaianu is forecast to move south-eastwards and, although the centre of the system is remaining to the south of Viti Levu, severe weather warnings cover much of Fiji," he said.

As TC Vaianu continues to move south, it was forecast to bring strong winds, heavy rain and large swells to parts of New Zealand on Sunday.

"While the heaviest rain is currently expected across the north and east of the North Island, the areas that will be impacted and the intensity of those impacts will be heavily dependent on the path that TC Vaianu takes as it approaches New Zealand.

Law said MetService would be "keeping a very close eye on" TC Vaianu, as this storm "has the potential to impact large parts of New Zealand, in terms of both heavy rain and strong winds".

"The exact path and intensity of the storm as it heads towards us in New Zealand is yet to be determined, however it does look like we will be seeing some impacts from this system during the weekend."

Tropical cyclone heading for NZ 'strengthening', likely to be upgraded - watch on TVNZ+

Earlier, MetService meteorologist Heather Keats said Tropical Cyclone Vaianu was expected to start "knocking on our doors" from Saturday night.

Metservice meterologist Heather Keats.

"There’s kind of two systems playing out. So it’s important for people to note that the weather we’re experiencing today and tomorrow is not the cyclone.

"So the cyclone is expected to arrive in the weekend. But for now, we're dealing with two low pressure systems actually. A subtropical low moving down over the North Island, and that’s the rain we’re experiencing."

She said "lots of heavy rain fell overnight, and there’s going to be plenty more today".

Parts of the country that were hit hard by weather in the past two weeks would be "watching closely", she added, as thunderstorms, localised downpours and strong winds were forecast into Thursday.

"That system is going to continue to track over the country today, with the last of the current weather watches expiring at 11am on Thursday... but that’s for this system. Watches and warnings would be issued shortly for the next system."

"First they'll have strong gale winds, large waves, and then it's going to start to move southeast during Wednesday, continue south [on] Thursday [and] Friday, and start knocking on our doors from Saturday night."

She said it was too early to know the full extent of the cyclone's impacts, but warned "current modelling suggest this particular storm could still be a category 2 tropical cyclone by the time it reaches New Zealand's waters".

Rain hits Northland

Northland remained under an orange heavy rain warning this afternoon, which had brought surface flooding to some areas including State Highway 10 Mangonui, west of the intersection of Midgley Rd, New Zealand Transport Agency Waka Kotahi said.

"Please slow down and increase your following distance. Small vehicles to avoid crossing the flooded section," it said on its website.

Nicole Hohaia shared the following image of surface flooding on a road just north of the Hihi turn off in Northland.

Nicole Hohaia shared the following image of surface flooding on a road just north of the Hihi turn off in Northland.

She said the water was covering both sides of the road and urged travellers to be careful.

"Cars are getting through but you have to stay on the higher side of the road and give way," she added.

Carey Bramley shared images with 1News of the rapidly rising river on Omaunu Rd in Kaeo,

Carey Bramley shared images with 1News of the rapidly rising river on Omaunu Rd in Kaeo, ahead of the 11am high tide.

Locals would be keeping a close eye on the Northland Regional Council's river level gauge.

The water level in Northland's Kaeo shortly before 10am today.

If you have images or video you'd like to share of the weather, send them to news@tvnz.co.nz

Tauranga City Council said it was also preparing, including proactively closing some parks and tracks around the city.

"Given the recent weather events and subsequent rainfall over the last few weeks, there’s an increased risk of both new landslides occurring and additional damage at sites where landslides have already occurred," it said.

"If you learn or suspect that a landslide is occurring or is about to occur in your area evacuate immediately if it is safe to do so.

"Seek higher ground outside the path of the landslide. Getting out of the path of a landslide or debris flow path is your best protection.

The council urged people to evacuate if they felt unsafe on their property.

"Please take care while driving as road conditions may be slippery. Watch out for slips and fallen trees," a spokesperson said.

"After heavy rainfall, streams and rivers may continue to rise. If you see rising water, do not wait for official warnings. Head for higher ground and stay away from floodwater."

Current watches and warnings

Heavy Rain Warning – Orange

Bay of Plenty west of Whakatāne, including Rotorua –24 hours from midnight today to midnight Wednesday.

Heavy Rain Watch

Northland – 21 hours from 9am today to 6am Wednesday.

Auckland and Great Barrier Island –27 hours from 9am today to noon Wednesday.

Coromandel Peninsula – 24 hours from 3pm today to 3pm Wednesday.

Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taupo - 17 hours from 3am to 8pm Wednesday.

Bay of Plenty about and east of Whakatāne – 29 hours from 6am Wednesday to 11am Thursday.

Tasman northwest of Motueka – 12 hours from 6pm today to 6am Wednesday.

Richmond and Bryant ranges, including the Rai Valley – 10 hours from 10pm today to 8am Wednesday.

Strong Wind Watch

Northland – eight hours from 9am to 5pm today.

The morning's headlines in 90 seconds, including Trump doubles down on threats against Iran, rough weather for the top of the country, and the record breaking flight around the moon. (Source: 1News)

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