Analysis: The shape of Christopher Luxon's Government heading into what's expected to be a bruising election year will become clearer today when the Prime Minister announces his Cabinet reshuffle. Here's what to watch.
Today's changes have apparently been triggered by the looming departures of Judith Collins and Shane Reti, who are currently two National ministers in Cabinet.
Luxon will announce his new Cabinet line-up later today.
The reshuffle has been widely anticipated, with the PM having last shaken up his ministers' portfolio responsibilities more than a year ago. It's expected he would use the opportunity to bring in new blood around the Cabinet table amid an election year.
Here's what to know ahead of the announcement later today.
Who's leaving and what's opening up?
Several heavyweight portfolios are expected to be up for grabs today.
Though it's worth noting that these will only particularly affect National Party ministers, as portfolios held by ACT and New Zealand First require negotiation to alter.
Collins was expected to leave Parliament when her new role as the Law Commission president begins in the middle of this year.
Parliament’s longest-continually serving woman member has called time, after 24 years. (Source: 1News)
She has been a mainstay of the National-led government, holding the roles of Attorney-General and the ministerial portfolios for defence, public service, space, and digitising government. Collins also holds responsibility for the SIS and GCSB.
Reti announced last month he would stand down at the election. He holds the portfolios for universities, statistics, Pacific peoples, and science, innovation and technology.
Workplace Relations Minister Brooke Van Velden was also stepping down at the election but, as an ACT minister, she was expected to hold onto her portfolios.
What to watch
Minister Chris Penk was tipped by many to move into Cabinet, possibly taking on Collins' job as Defence Minister, where he already held a role as associate minister. A former Navy officer, Penk, was currently also the minister for veterans.
But he's been most visible as Construction Minister, where he has steered rules to exempt some granny flats from consenting schemes across the line, and worked to relax the Government's quake-strengthening regime for buildings.
Another role in the mix includes Attorney-General, a position usually held by someone with a legal background. Penk was previously a lawyer.
The Construction and Veterans Minister speaks to Q+A about what he'll bring to the portfolio, along with the Government's plan to make it more affordable to build houses. (Source: 1News)
However, Paul Goldsmith has previously stood in for Collins in the role and was a likely candidate. He has been the justice and Treaty negotiations minister.
Other names potentially in the mix for a more significant ministerial role or elevation to Cabinet included rising first-term star James Meager, who was most notably brought on at Luxon's last reshuffle to become "South Island Minister".
He's among several more notable first-term MPs within the party.
Catherine Wedd has been the prominent face of National's support for an under-16s social media ban and chaired Parliament's environment select committee.
In a similar vein, Upper Harbour MP Cameron Brewer has spent time chairing Parliament's powerful finance and expenditure select committee. Luxon may consider roles outside of Cabinet for Brewer, Wedd or other high-performing backbench MPs.
Meanwhile, one of Cabinet's most heavily tasked ministers, Chris Bishop, was also expected to lose one of his portfolios, 1News reported on Monday, as he rushed to push through the Government's resource management reforms before the election.
He holds the ministerial portfolios for housing, transport, infrastructure, and Resource Management Act reform, as well as being an associate minister of finance and for sport. Bishop would also be chairing National's election campaign, reprising his 2023 role.
His handling of housing intensification in Auckland – where the minister has repeatedly been forced to walk back his ambition for zoning reform under political pressure – may also factor into any decision to lighten his load ahead of the election.
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey, whose workload has thinned considerably since losing several portfolios in last year's reshuffle, could also be vulnerable if Luxon decides to make room for fresher talent.
What's on the PM's mind amid reshuffle?
There are a couple of things that will likely be on Luxon's mind.
Polls show National has been on unpredictable ground ahead of November's election.
Even before the current Middle East crisis, an over-teased economic recovery was only just starting to kick into gear with the Government also struggling on other issues.
The latest 1News Verian poll in February showed National underperforming its 2023 party vote result, although coalition parties would still hold enough seats to govern.
A public health alert was issued on Saturday after routine testing discovered total coliforms in the Rawhiti water zone. (Source: TVNZ)
Now, an incoming fuel crisis has brought increasing pessimism about the future and added scrutiny to the National leader's ability to handle crises.
The ongoing speculation about the PM's leadership of National has persisted through the summer and has now likely become a defining theme of his current term.
Few other sitting prime ministers have faced such persistent and sustained public speculation about their leadership without it crystallising into a formal challenge.
Defence and foreign policy have also risen as key issues, with talk of a "rupture" in the global order and increasingly unsteady news from abroad.
Luxon can ill afford to project more instability, particularly from party disunity, so most political observers have been expecting a fairly contained reshuffle — one driven by Collins' and Reti's departures rather than anything more dramatic.
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