Energy officials have released additional fuel stock data this afternoon, showing 13 ships are either already at domestic ports or are en route to New Zealand — quelling some fears that stocks were being depleted too rapidly.
The out-of-cycle update revealed six vessels were already discharging or moving between domestic ports — details that had not appeared in yesterday's regular release.
Wednesday's figures showed in-country fuel stocks at their lowest point in March, with diesel cover sitting at 18.1 days and with only two ships listed as arriving in the next two weeks. Only one of the two vessel was reported to be carrying diesel.
Concerns had been raised about declining in-country diesel stocks.
Isolated island nations face unique challenges as global fuel crisis deepens. (Source: 1News)
Today's clarifying update used the same overall underlying data — a snapshot from Sunday midnight — but added a new category breaking out "on-water" vessels already at domestic ports, and expanded the shipment window from two weeks to three.
It showed the six vessels discharging or moving between New Zealand ports were carrying 11.6 days of diesel, 19.8 days of petrol cover, and 11.7 days of jet fuel.
These were not counted as being "in-country".
Starboard Maritime Intelligence maritime domain analyst Mark Douglas said his firm was independently tracking six tankers listing New Zealand as their destination, carrying roughly 15 days of fuel supply expected within two weeks.
He said the current supply picture "doesn't seem too different from a year ago".
MBIE described today's release as providing "additional information to the public." The ministry said it would next update the data on the afternoon of March 30.
Yesterday's overall data published online showed combined onshore and on-water stocks was at 46.6 days of cover as at Sunday, down marginally from 46.9 days four days earlier.
National fuel prices have climbed by around 55 cents per litre for petrol and 90 cents per litre for diesel since the start of the war in the Middle East.
No change to fuel alert levels expected – Willis
Finance Minister Nicola Willis told Parliament today that the Government would not be changing its fuel response alert level when it updated the country tomorrow, but would detail additional actions being taken within the current phase.
Willis said the Government would also release more information about the criteria used to assess when a change in the response phase is required.
PM says the relief is targeted at the genuinely squeezed middle lower income working New Zealanders. (Source: 1News)
"Our goal is to avoid ever getting to response phase three or four," Willis said in response to questions from Labour's Megan Woods.
"These are envisaged in the national fuel plan as the point at which prioritisation of fuel would be required."
Willis said she would not expect the Government to be "skipping through the response phases," adding that the aim was to source enough international supply and take sufficient action in phases one and two to prevent that.
Rising petrol and diesel prices have led to a rapid increase in public transport patronage. (Source: 1News)
She said there was a "real focus on diesel," noting it was the fuel most disrupted by events in the Middle East and the fuel with the least elastic demand – meaning users had little ability to cut back compared with petrol.
The average daily fuel demand used by MBIE to calculate days of cover is 8.1 million litres of petrol, 10.7 million litres of diesel and 4.8 million litres of jet fuel.
The ministry said fuel supply remained within normal levels and there was "currently no need for New Zealanders to change how they buy fuel".
However, Douglas warned the flow-on effects from the Middle East conflict were building in the supply chain that fed the country.
Refineries in Singapore, Japan and South Korea – which supplied the products New Zealand imported – were now operating at reduced capacity in what Douglas described as "turn down", processing crude at a slower rate to stretch remaining stocks.
"As the refiners get through the last of the stock that they've got, all the refineries will be on turn down now, so they'll be processing slower than what they normally are to try and keep the stocks that are there going through," Douglas said.
"The last thing the refiners want is to shut down their entire system. It's dangerous for the plant, and it takes a while to start back up again."
The real risk for New Zealand would emerge when product tankers leaving those Asian hubs began to slow or were diverted to competing markets, he said.
"It's not what we're seeing yet, but it's certainly something that we are aware might start to happen as the supply becomes constrained and there becomes more competition for the fuel that is available."
Douglas described New Zealand's fuel demand as a "rounding error" compared with other nations, calling it a "double-edged sword" – the country did not need large volumes, but its distance from refining hubs made it vulnerable if supply tightened further.
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