A retired military leader has issued a stark warning about the Defence Force's capabilities in light of the Iran war.
Major-General (Retired) John Howard spoke to Q+A on Friday, raising concerns about New Zealand’s vulnerabilities on national security across both the military and economy.
Howard has had a 40-year military career, leading soldiers on multiple overseas deployments. He was also the only New Zealander to have ever been seconded into an executive role in America’s Defence Intelligence Agency.
When asked whether New Zealand can fight the sort of combat currently being seen in Iran and the wider Middle East, Howard’s response was blunt.
“If we had to send capabilities from the New Zealand Defence Force into that area, they would be at extreme risk,” he said.
“The conflict is kinetic, and by that I mean high precision, high lethality, with very complex command and control platforms. Not only would they be exposed to that risk, it would take a long time to get there.
“The question would be asked – what might you deliver, and to what end?”
Howard said while the decision whether to deploy would be made by Cabinet, the logistics and operations of any deployment would be handled by the NZDF.
The Defence Force would also have the responsibility of reconstituting the national security role left by any assets that are deployed.
His comments were made the day before a statement released by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, in which the New Zealand Government joined other countries in condemning Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Obviously, any future decision for New Zealand to support multilateral efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would need to be considered by Cabinet."
Howard argued New Zealand has fallen behind on national security, in part because of a lack of recognition that the world has become a more threatening environment.
“If we were looking for a wake-up call, it probably happened some time ago,” he said.
“To send a wake-up call or a clarion call to us in New Zealand, really hard in our national psyche. Especially over the last six months, because we want summer.
"We wanted summer to be really good as we went away on our big break, as central government had its traditional eight-week hiatus, as doors are closed and close-down instructions are issued.”
“The building in the Middle East [of US forces] was very clearly signalled, so none of that should have surprised anyone, in my view.”
“The word shock has been on everybody’s lips. In my mind, it hasn’t been a shock, it’s been a reality,” Howard continued.
“That reality has forced statements out of government – ‘we continue to monitor the situation’ – that’s part of our national security DNA. We use watch groups, we get officials together, we have media meetings where we talk about consequences.”
“I’m not convinced that as a national security system or as a nation, we’ve got our head around the 'so what' or 'what next?' It’s really hard to explain what might happen tomorrow when we continue to hope for the world of five years ago.”
Howard said New Zealand’s national security, which was last updated in 2023, has lost currency as the world has changed. Among the things missing from it, the retired leader believed a much more detailed and strategic plan around fuel security should be made.
He did not call for rationing fuel, but said there needs to be a “more strategic view” about where fuel should be deployed to keep critical industries running.
And he said that with the potential for other global hotspots to erupt, and the near-certainty that New Zealand will be hit in future with earthquakes or extreme weather disasters, the problems would only become more complex.
“Becoming comfortable with complexity is really hard, especially when we’ve had eighty years of relative peace and calm in New Zealand.
"So, to come back to your question about 'are we prepared', it’s more 'are we aware?'”
For the full interview, watch the video above
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air
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