It's likely 91 octane petrol will hit $4 a litre before long, but take care with Gaspy data showing it's already there.
By Susan Edmunds of RNZ
Gaspy spokesperson Mike Newton said while 91 was near that level in the more remote parts of the country or difficult to access stations, people marking empty petrol stations with a $4 price could be skewing the data in more central areas.
He said people were marking the price high so those stations moved to the bottom of the list.
There have been reports on the app of 91 hitting $4 in parts of Auckland, but the stations themselves said it was still selling at $3.29.
However Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said based on current spot prices, the price at the pumps could be significantly higher: "When you look at the current spot price for refined product in Singapore and Korea, that's roughly equivalent to $3.80."
There were already signs people were driving less than normal, he said.
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said a $4 per litre 91 price was looking much more likely.
Both Kiernan and Eaqub said the most pressing concern was what would happen when supply was disrupted, which may be in about five weeks' time.
"There's been so much disruption, it's really that lack of supply, the feedstock into the refineries, that's the big concern at the moment," Eaqub said.
"Things are still on the way. It's going to be the next lot of ships, because the ships from Hormuz have arrived in Korea and Singapore now, so there is no more new feedstock going in… that's why we need to keep watching the ships that are sailing from Singapore and Korea for the next little while."
He said it was likely to hit a crunch in May or June.
Diesel shortages were more of a concern, he said. "There's disruption in fuel supplies, diesel supplies in the provinces already. It's the unpredictability of it, because most of the logistics sector relies on contracts with preferred suppliers and they expect to be able to pull in and fill up.
"When they can't it puts the whole network under pressure. That's why I think it's so important for us to have some kind of logistics strategy and coordination framework. The ports, the fuel companies and the logistics sectors need to figure out how to consolidate load. Even if there are not physical shortages in total we might not have enough diesel in the right places."
He said if petrol was low in places people might not be able to get to work. "You run out of diesel on a truck, you've got a whole container, two containers full or couple of truckloads of animals stranded in the middle of nowhere… it's much worse in terms of consequences.
"Individually, it's bad when you get stuck out of petrol, but diesel is literally the lifeblood of the economy."
Even if a ceasefire was announced now, and stock began to flow freely again, there would still be a period of disrupted flow.
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