New Zealand has around six to seven weeks’ worth of fuel available nationally, yet – in recent days – motorists in parts of the country have encountered empty pumps and temporarily closed forecourts.
Both the Government and industry experts say the outages are localised delivery disruptions, driven by a surge in consumer demand, rather than any lack of fuel coming into or stored within the country.
The disruptions come as the war in the Middle East escalates, with tit‑for‑tat attacks targeting oil and gas infrastructure pushing global energy prices sharply higher.
Overnight, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark used to price fuel, briefly surged above US$119 a barrel, up about 60% since the conflict began.
Explained: When you'll start seeing serious measures to conserve fuel supply - Watch on TVNZ+
Overnight, Brent crude briefly topped $US119, up 60% since the war started, putting the pinch across the board. (Source: 1News)
A delivery issue, not a fuel shortage
AA principal policy adviser Terry Collins said motorists encountering empty pumps were being confronted with a delivery and logistics issue – not a national fuel shortage.
He said New Zealand’s fuel system effectively had two supply chains: Fuel arriving into the country by ship, and fuel being delivered domestically by tanker trucks to service stations.
"At a national level, there’s plenty of fuel. We’ve got fuel arriving by ship every week, storage onshore, and no issues with overall supply," Collins told 1News.
The problem, he said, arose at the local delivery level, particularly when there was an unexpected spike in demand.
Service station deliveries were tightly scheduled and optimised to run efficiently, meaning there was little spare capacity when demand suddenly surged.
"Those tankers are generally optimised to operate under normal conditions. When demand suddenly exceeds expectations in one location, a station can run dry before it’s due to be refilled."
Once a station ran out, it took time for companies to reshuffle delivery schedules, especially given limits on driver hours, tanker availability, and the fact logistics operations were owned and run separately by different fuel brands.
'Toilet paper' effect
Collins said the visibility of empty stations could also trigger a self‑fulfilling surge in demand, describing it as a "toilet paper issue", referring to shortages during the Covid-19 pandemic caused by panic buying.
"They've created their own demand, then they drive past the station and see it's got no petrol and think 'hell, I better get some petrol'. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Outages like this were usually highly localised, particularly in urban areas with many alternatives nearby.
"If Pak'nSave Petone runs out, it's not a big deal, because there's another six service stations along Seaview that haven't run out."
Rural areas, Collins said, were less likely to have the same spikes.
"They don't have that volume of people in a rural area to have that big impact."
Finance Minister Nicola Willis today said empty pumps reflected a surge in local demand that had outstripped normal delivery patterns rather than a lack of fuel in the system.
"Local fuel companies are seeing increased buying from New Zealand customers, and so their normal patterns of restocking in some cases are not sufficient," Willis told 1News.
Fuel companies were closely monitoring demand and understood it was in their commercial interest to ensure fuel stored nationally made its way to gas stations, she said.
"They're competing against each other. They want to make sure that they're selling the fuel that they can sell to customers."
Willis said she had fuel companies to confirm that local distribution issues would be addressed.
"I sought assurances from the fuel companies that they will keep on top of that, local distribution, and that they will ensure that the supplies they have stored are making it to customers. And they affirmed, for me, that that is exactly what they will do."
Iran and Israel trade attacks on fuel facilities in Middle East, heightening global supply fears. (Source: 1News)
The Government was also preparing for a worst‑case scenario, planning for eight to 12 weeks of disruption if the conflict worsens.
Measures go to Cabinet on Monday
Cabinet ministers were expected to consider further measures on Monday, including temporarily relaxing fuel standards, which one supplier says would allow fuel to be sourced from a wider range of international refineries.
Waitomo Group chief executive Simon Parham said New Zealand’s ultra‑low sulphur diesel standards were more restrictive than those used elsewhere.
"It really just broadens the market for purchases. In New Zealand it’s 10 parts per million, in the US it’s 15 — that opens up a whole new suite of refineries we can purchase from."
The Commerce Commission said it was monitoring fuel prices daily and that current movements were consistent with past global disruptions.
It said there was no evidence of misconduct, adding that strong competition, helped by motorists shopping around, remained the best protection for consumers.
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