Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the Government is preparing for the worst-case scenario of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, with officials tasked to plan for eight to 12 weeks of disruption to fuel supplies.
Luxon said, even if an unlikely ceasefire were announced tomorrow, the effects on global supply chains and fuel supplies would not be immediately resolved.
"I do want to be straight with New Zealanders — things could get worse before they actually get better," the PM said following a briefing from officials.
Luxon spoke alongside Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
The Prime Minister, who has just returned from a three-day trip to the Pacific, described the crisis as "one of the most significant oil shocks we've had in history".
"Like all New Zealanders, we hope the conflict is ending quickly, but hope is not a plan, and so we are preparing for the worst case scenario where the conflict is prolonged."
The Prime Minister said the Government was approaching the crisis on three fronts.
These included diplomatic talks with overseas partners to secure alternative fuel sources, close engagement with the domestic fuel industry, and a contingency plan grounded in the national fuel plan developed in mid-2024.
But the Government and fuel suppliers say there’s no need to panic. (Source: 1News)
Luxon said he had already spoken to the leaders of Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, with further engagements planned in the coming days.
"Kiwis are incredibly resilient, but the last few years have been very difficult for households and businesses across the country. We've been knocked around by the pandemic, then the recession, high inflation, the tariffs and now the Middle East conflict.
"We can't control global events, but we can control our response to them," he said.
Luxon added: "Whatever happens, we will continue to deliver the responsible economic management needed to minimise the impact for Kiwis."
Kiwis showing 'good behaviour' on fuel stockpiling
Luxon and Willis' media briefing came on the same day as GDP data for the final months of 2025, which confirmed the economy had now grown for three quarters.
The Finance Minister cautioned the figures painted an outdated picture.
"I'll just be frank, that's very backward-looking data. We're now in a new world."
The Government is drawing up urgent fuel strategies as the Middle East conflict continues. (Source: 1News)
Pressed on localised shortages — including reports of diesel running out at some Wellington stations today — Willis acknowledged there were individual shortages at some outlets.
However, she said importers had sufficient supplies in the country to replenish stations and were confident they could continue to serve New Zealand.
Luxon added: "What we've seen is, actually, very good behaviour from New Zealanders, in the sense of, we haven't seen massive stockpiling and going across the country.
"We might have it in localised places, but I think New Zealanders have actually been very good and we are reassuring New Zealanders that we have the supplies."
Domestic prioritisation scenarios being considered
Willis flagged some concerns about future supply. She said most of New Zealand's fuel came via South Korea and around 30% from Singapore. Both countries were struggling to secure supplies needed to produce refined products.
"We can anticipate that, in the future, they may be producing less fuel for the global market, which will make it more challenging for our fuel importers to access supplies."
Willis said she would meet the following day with five key fuel importers — Z Energy, BP, Mobil, Timaru Oil Services and Gull — who had already been meeting daily with officials.
She was also considering scenarios where prioritisation measures may be required.
Fuel crisis: Potential restrictions as supply concern grows — READ MORE
"The third area of focus for the Government is considering a world in which disruptions to fuel orders are such that domestic prioritisation measures may be required," she said.
"This is, of course, envisaged in the fuel plan we have already published. We are now working closely with the industry on the steps that we will take at each phase of the plan, and I will be updating you on that work next week.
Dealers say inquiries have doubled in the past week as petrol prices climb and global tensions push oil markets higher. (Source: 1News)
"As you would expect, the Government is also working with the wider business sector, because business continuity is essential to jobs and incomes, which will be vital over these coming months."
'Irresponsible to help every New Zealander' right now – Willis
Willis said that she had received advice on potential support for households affected by rising fuel prices.
She has previously been clear that any cost-of-living relief would be acutely targeted.
"We have actively sought advice on the methods by which we can provide very timely, targeted support to those households we anticipate will be most affected by increasing prices and who are not able to avoid them," she said.
Instability around the Strait of Hormuz and soaring crude prices are putting sharp upward pressure on NZ fuel costs. (Source: 1News)
The Finance Minister said it would be "at this point, irresponsible for us to help every New Zealander" in the form of support or payments.
"We acknowledge that these price increases are impacting every New Zealander, but it would be, at this point irresponsible for us to help every New Zealander," she said.
"If the Government spends too much right now, it will lead to higher inflation and more price surges across the economy, which could lead us into a vicious spiral."
Willis said the country was also facing a "far more unstable world", with the price of international borrowing already climbing.
She added: "Over the past week, ministers and officials have engaged with more than 500 businesses and business associations and impacted sectors and industries.
"This has enabled real-time updates and established a platform for information sharing, which will be critical going forward."
Willis said there were also reports of New Zealanders adapting on their own, with increased public transport usage, carpooling and flexible working arrangements.
Last fuel stock update on Sunday
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment confirmed that as of midnight on Sunday, the country held 25.1 days of combined in-country fuel cover and a further 23.8 days on the water — totalling 48.9 days across petrol, diesel and jet fuel.
Ten fuel vessels are expected to arrive between March 16 and 22, carrying an estimated 22 days' petrol cover, 14 days of diesel and 13 days of jet fuel.
MBIE said it had been actively assessing the fuel security situation following the escalating Middle East conflict, which had added pressure to global fuel markets through disrupted shipping routes, longer voyages and shifting supply patterns.
However, the ministry said New Zealand had not yet experienced the type of sustained, direct supply disruption that would justify emergency measures.
The Government urged consumers to stick to their usual purchasing habits, saying premature fuel rationing or restrictions would not create more fuel in the system and could disrupt normal operations.
The fuel system currently sits in phase one — "minor" — of the four-phase National Fuel Plan, which sets out how government and industry coordinate during disruptions.
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