The belief that now is the time to buy a house is at the highest point in more than a decade ahead of expected interest rate rises, according to an ASB survey.
In the bank’s latest Housing Confidence Survey, a net 27% of Kiwi respondents said now was a good time to purchase a home. This sat near the highest proportion recorded since July 2011.
Confidence in the housing market was also on the rise, with 30% of respondents expecting house prices to increase over the next 12 months, up from 17% in the previous quarter.
A 25 basis point OCR hike was expected by the end of the year, with an eventual peak of 3.25% – which would lead to a rise in interest rates.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said conditions currently favoured buyers, particularly first-home buyers.
“From a buyer’s perspective, prices are stable, supply is at a 10‑year high and mortgage rates are still relatively low. However, rising expectations for both house prices and interest rates could prompt some buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to act sooner rather than later, to avoid getting priced out.”
But ASB cautioned that household finances remained a key constraint.
“Unemployment is still elevated and economic recovery remains uneven across the regions which is likely to temper any near‑term surge in housing activity.”
Tuffley said the survey's results showed growing confidence that the housing market was past its weakest point.
“House price expectations have clearly rebounded after a soft patch through 2025,” he said.
“However, high levels of housing supply and only moderate demand are likely to keep price increases relatively subdued through the first half of 2026.”
Housing market optimism increased across all regions, according to ASB's survey, led by the South Island’s net 36% of households expecting prices to rise over the coming year.
Tuffley said households seemed to be aware of the interest rate outlook, with the proportion expecting higher rates doubling from the previous quarter to 24%.
“The switch over the quarter to fewer people expecting declining rates and more expecting higher rates was marked. In the face of that shift, the greater degree of confidence on future house price increases is a call-out.”
ASB expected forecasts for both interest rate and house prices rises to encourage some buyers to "bring forward purchasing decisions".
"This, alongside an expected improvement in broader macroeconomic conditions, could underpin housing market activity. The recent lift in home lending to both investors and first‑home buyers supports this."
The ASB Housing Confidence Survey has been conducted each quarter since July 1996, and asks about their expectations for house prices and interest rates over the next 12 months, and whether it is a good time to buy a property.
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