Poll: Hipkins, Luxon neck and neck as preferred PM – Govt gets 5/10

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has drawn level with National’s Christopher Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister stakes for the first time since just prior to the 2023 election.

Both leaders sit on 20% in today’s 1News Verian poll, with Luxon taking a 3% drop and Hipkins a 1% drop.

Meanwhile, New Zealand First continue to record strong results, notching their highest rating since August 2017.

If an election were to be held today, the poll shows that the right bloc of National, New Zealand First and ACT would have 65 seats combined, enough to form a government.

That compares to 59 seats for the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. However, there is some good news for the left: The gap is closing. They've gained one seat on our last poll, whereas the coalition have lost two.

On the other hand, the seat calculation has Te Pāti Māori keeping the same number of MPs based on holding on to its six electorates – an unlikely scenario due to the party’s significant drop in support in recent months.

The results are according to the Verian poll of 1003 eligible voters taken between February 7 and February 11.

The survey comes after the Prime Minister set the election date for November and after politicians visited Waitangi.

National is down 2% to 34%, losing the ground it made in our last poll in December.

Labour is also on the decline, falling by 3% down to 32% and losing the same ground it made up last time.

Hipkins today brushed off the dip, saying the party had seen a "steady increase" in support since the last election and remained focused on building toward an "election-winning position by November".

"Polls bounce around a little bit from poll to poll but, overall, the trajectory for Labour has been a positive one," he said.

Luxon said: "I don't comment on polls. I'm just very focused on growing the economy, and New Zealanders will judge us at the end of the year. There's more to do, but we've made some very good progress recently."

He said they had made the first three-party coalition "work incredibly well".

The Greens meanwhile are back on the up, surging up 4% to 11%, recovering from December's drop off.

Co-leader Chloë Swarbrick said she was not focused on the numbers, telling 1News the party had been "really proud" of the past two years – not only holding the Government to account, but putting forward "clear alternatives and solutions".

She said Kiwis facing a cost of living crisis and climate change needed to know the Greens were in their corner.

New Zealand First is continuing from strength to strength notching up by 1% to 10%. The last time it was on that figure was August 2017.

Party leader Winston Peters attributed the party's rise to connecting with "forgotten New Zealanders" who were "sick and tired of all this globalist stuff".

"We're packing the halls, and it's resonating with ordinary Kiwis," he said.

ACT appear to be the casualty of New Zealand First's increase, falling by 1% down to 9%.

Leader and Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour was measured about his party's position, saying a one-point change "in either direction" was neither victory nor defeat.

He said being "slightly higher" than at the last election was a solid foundation from which to ask more Kiwis to trust ACT with their vote.

Te Pāti Māori have slightly recovered from the December poll's collapse, gaining 1% to move up to 2%.

Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said the figure was double what the party had polled in previous instances when it had been "predicted as never coming back".

"We never take anything for granted," she said. "It's really important to be able to get out there on the ground and take less notice of the polls."

Hipkins and Luxon are now neck and neck for the top job.

Voters have given each a 20% ranking, but both are trending backwards.

Luxon has fallen by 3%. The last time he was on 20%, was August of last year.

Hipkins fell by 1% to achieve the same rating.

The Labour leader said the result was "highly unusual".

"It's very unusual for a leader of the opposition to out-poll a sitting prime minister, particularly in their first term," he said. "I take some encouragement from that."

His National counterpart Luxon declined to comment on the result directly, but said voters would ultimately make their decision based on "who's best at managing the economy", claiming the Opposition's positions on tax changes would "put our recovery at risk".

New Zealand First’s Peters is up for the fifth straight poll in a row, climbing 1% to 10%.

The Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is steady on 5%, while ACT's David Seymour has dipped to 4%.

Rounding out the honourable mentions on 1% are Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, former PM Jacinda Ardern, Greens Co-Leader Marama Davidson, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop and senior Labour MP Kieran McAnulty.

The poll’s findings on the state of the economy show there are signs voters have doubts about a turnaround in New Zealand’s economic performance.

Economic optimism is down by 2% to 40%, while pessimism is up by 1% to 31%.

The result comes ahead of Wednesday's official cash rate announcement, which is predicted to hold the key interest rate steady. However there are warnings the Reserve Bank could put up the OCR later this year - earlier than planned.

1News also asked voters to rate the Government’s performance on a scale of one to 10.

On average voters gave them a five out of 10.

National party supporters scored them a 6.7 with ACT supporters giving 6.4. Contrasting that are Green supporters who gave them a 3.1 rating while Labour supporters have them 3.6.

Overall, the spread was as follows:

1 (very poor) - 11%

2 - 7%

3 - 11%

4 - 10%

5 - 14%

6 - 15%

7 - 17%

8 - 10%

9 - 2%

10 (excellent) - 2%

National – 34% (down 2% since December)

Labour – 32% (down 3%)

Greens – 11% (up 4%)

New Zealand First – 10% (up 1%)

ACT – 9% (down 1%)

Te Pāti Māori – 2% (up 1%)

Don't know / refused to say – 11% (up 1%)

National – 42

Labour – 39

Greens – 14

New Zealand First – 12

ACT – 11

Te Pāti Māori – 6

Total: 124

Chris Hipkins – 20% (down 1%)

Christopher Luxon – 20% (down 3%)

Winston Peters – 10% (up 1%)

Chlöe Swarbrick – 5% (steady)

David Seymour – 4% (down 1%)

See the full poll results here and the Government performance ratings here

Between February 7 and February 11 2026, 1003 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.