Your KiwiSaver might have given you a better return than your house over the past 10 years, and experts say the same is probably true of the next 10.
By Susan Edmunds of RNZ
Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said while people were often told house prices doubled every 10 years, that had not been the case in the decade since 2015 based on the site's asking prices.
Between 2015 and 2025, New Zealand's national average asking price increased by 55.1%, from $556,931 to $863,747.
Auckland experienced a 23.5% increase as average asking prices rose from $846,730 in 2015 to $1,045,328 in 2025.
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By comparison, the NZX50 lifted 4.92% a year over the past 10 years on price alone, or 57.67%. Bitcoin rose 50,000%. Gold lifted more than 270%.
Morningstar said that in the 10 years to September, aggressive KiwiSaver funds as a group had returned an annualised 9.7% a year or a cumulative roughly 150%.
University of Auckland finance expert Gertjan Verdickt said it was not surprising to see other investments outperforming housing.
"If you look at the real returns of housing over the long term, after adjusting for taxes, quality... the return is positive but very low.
"On average, over the last few centuries, that return is around 2% to 3% per year. That is not bad but it's definitely not as good as other asset classes, such as equities and bonds.
"The correlation with the equity market is also relatively large, so it offers modest diversification opportunities.
"Thus, housing is not a bad asset to have per se, but it's generally overemphasised as 'the holy grail'."
Kernel Wealth founder Dean Anderson said shares had consistently outperformed property investment over long periods.
"That is not an unusual trend. It is actually almost an expected trend over the long term."
A key difference for many investors is that they can borrow to invest in houses in a way that is generally not possible with other assets.
"The difference is obviously borrowing, but that is a double-edged sword," Anderson said.
"And the leverage that comes from that can be quite negative, as some have experienced in recent years, if there is a downturn.
"So I think the biggest warning for most investors - it's not just the mindset of thinking that property doubles every 10 years, but I think we've also started to realise that property is also not just a guaranteed bet."
He said different regions, suburbs and types of houses could also perform differently.
"It is actually still common for property values to fall. which I think is the more important awareness now.
"Not only have we assumed that property doubles every seven to 10 years, we've also typically had this mindset of thinking that it also only goes up."
Anderson said KiwiSaver was many people's biggest asset outside their homes. It would not be unreasonable for someone in a growth fund to get better returns from that than their property, he said.
"I think it's going to be really interesting to see the appeal of property from an investment perspective going forward as KiwiSaver balances get bigger, as people become more aware of other things they can invest in - not just property, but in shares, in digital assets, and that the returns of those other assets have been as strong or stronger… I think we're becoming more educated."
He said there would also be a wealth transfer over the next ten years as older generations sold their investments.
"New Zealand has a disproportionately large amount of our wealth, particularly by baby boomers and others, tied up in residential property investment.
"Now, a lot of those holders of property, either to fund retirement or, as part of, inheritance wealth transfer. are potentially going to be looking to sell those assets.
"And you've got a lot of people now into that retirement stage where the rental income and costs maybe not funding the lifestyle that they need and are slowly liquidating some of those assets.
"So I suspect that we'll actually see an increase in supply over the next 10 years, not only from growth of new builds, but also the vast majority of current holders looking to realise a return from those properties and create liquid cash flow."
He said that could help avoid the sorts of surges in house prices seen in past decades.
Realestate.co.nz said some parts of the country did double in price over 10 years. Gisborne was up 145.5%, Manawatu-Whanganui 121.5% and the central North Island up 119.2%.
Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the idea of doubling each decade had always been quite general.
"Even during boom phases, depending on which particular 10-year period you choose, there might not have necessarily been 100% growth."
He said it was not "magic" and had to be driven by underlying factors. Interest rates trending down, a relatively favourable tax system, tight land supply and a shift to two-income households had all pushed prices up.
These factors were likely to have less impact in future, he said,
"It looks like the tax rules will change at some point, I don't know when, I don't know what they might be, but there is a growing appetite for a tax system that's perhaps a little bit less favorable for property, you know, obviously capital gains tax is on the radar right now, but there could be other things as well."
Government moves to free up land could also help keep prices lower, he said.
"Whatever you think is the natural growth rate, historically it's probably been 6 or 7% over the long run, I think there's every reason why that would be lower in future, maybe four or five.
"House prices will still double if you give them long enough but that period of time will be longer than it's been in the past."
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