Wellington rental market recovery expected – 16% increase in demand 

Rental market recovery is expected in Wellington in 2026, with the city’s peak flat hunting period now well underway.

The capital had an unusual year in 2025, as the median rent dropped from $650 to $595 in the year to last November.

In contrast, rents were stable in Auckland and increased slightly in Christchurch.

“Throughout 2025, there were multiple stories correctly reporting that the Wellington rental market was very, very tough – not tough for tenants, tough for owners,” says Lowe & Co salesperson and property investor Adam Cockburn.

“But that was a story of 2025, and the story now so far at least in early January 2026 is that of a recovering rental market."

He said a key driver of this was the increased number of students moving into Wellington’s rental market, after numbers fell post-Covid.

“We're seeing a big increase in students coming out of the halls back into the private rental market again for the first time in about five years."

Trade Me data for last month showed a 16% yearly increase in demand for Wellington rentals, but listings only increasing by 1%.

Nationwide, listings are up by 4% and demand by 8%.

Students Lilly Malcolm and Trinity Mann have noticed the extra competition, having just found a new rental property in Wellington after a two-month search.

Mann described the process as "stressful and intense".

"I was so on edge all the time because it was just, the feeling of like, 'oh my gosh, there's so much we have to do'," she said.

"I have to go to work at this time and I have, like, four flat viewings before that.

"And then also having to, like, make Plan Bs and stuff like that."

Malcolm said she and three flatmates searched for a place a year ago and secured the first flat they viewed. This year it has taken around 15 viewings.

“Last week actually, we said, 'look, if we don't have anything by the end of this week, we need to start thinking about like who we can stay with, if we need to go home'.”

Victoria University of Wellington Students'​ Association president Aidan Donoghue said students' experiences of flat hunting recently have been "a mixed bag".

"It's roughly about the same prices when looking or upgrading the spaces from to bigger sizes but, in the same vein, they're also having a still cast of widening it just to see their responses from landlords."

He said incentives offered by landlords for students to take a property often didn’t come in the form of rent reduction.

“Usually, those will be in the forms of either damage forgiveness or within some more odd things like gift cards or other sorts of incentives.

"Myself for example, I was offered, in exchange for staying on for a further 12 months tenancy, was some damage forgiveness for a cracked stove top."

Cockburn said his advice to landlords was to always set rent according to the market.

"There's no point trying to hold out for a market, for a rent that the market won't bear. Your property will sit empty.

"It's better to take a 5, 10, 20% [or] even bigger discount if necessary to get the property rented."

He also suggested renters kept in mind that current rents were very likely to increase.

"I would not be going into a property that was typically out of my reach financially ... because, in the next 12 months, the rent's going to recover and [if] it becomes out of reach, then you just have to move again.

"I would go for the property that suits me, that in a normal market I could afford, [and] in any event negotiate the best rent I can for that property."