Summer is fining up at last but it’ll stay changeable, says 1News weather expert Daniel Corbett.
There'll be more more beach trips to come but watch out for the wet!
This summer has sputtered to get going in some parts of the country but has finally brought some fine weather.
The region on the lookout for ‘rainmakers’ as summer continues - Watch on TVNZ+
Looking ahead to the rest of the season we can expect a good dose more of fine days, but the features are starting to move around on the weather maps.
That means even though the fine weather has arrived, don’t expect it to be the norm all the time for the rest of summer.
In other words, just like over the Christmas break, have a plan B or keep the raincoats handy for the rainmaker days.
Weak la Nina
This Summer has seen a weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.
It has been a bit like a late guest to a dinner party turning up after all the food has been served -they just pick up some of the leftovers!
That is similar to how much impact the weak La Nina has had on our summer.
La Nina has been around, but other factors had their own share of the food at the party, so to speak.
The changes in the sea temperature distribution, and the atmosphere's reaction to this, have been notable. But they've also been subdued in how they have actually affected our daily weather.
The other forces at play, such as the continental warmth from Australia in the mid layers of the atmosphere that helped bring the heat wave conditions to many parts of the country last week, have been quite dominant.
This will continue through the next several weeks so expect plenty more large anticyclones, bringing the fine days, to move across the country.
In a normal La Nina these passing anticyclones would travel across the country on a more southerly track exposing the upper North Island to humid northerlies and more rain.
This has not happened so far this season. They have instead travel across New Zealand in a more northerly position. Only recently have they shifted slightly further south in their passage.
Increasing risk for tropical cyclone development
This could have an impact on our weather pattern as we head into the third week of January. An active phase in the tropics will also bring life to the clouds and upper atmosphere with an increasing risk for tropical cyclone development further north.
The lumps of continental warmth in the mid layers of the atmosphere will jostle with these tropical features in the next week or so. If steering winds start to align in a southeasterly direction the odd tropical feature could track towards New Zealand.
One or two of these during an active phase could bring a significant rainmaker day and big shifts in our fine summer weather.
This will be something to keep an eye out for in the next couple of weeks and then again during the middle of February.
The cooler seas in the eastern Pacific are slowly starting to fade and will do so more rapidly as we head towards late February and March.
This might allow a bit more of the more typical pattern of passing summer highs in between fronts.
Once we hit late March and the Equinox that is the signal for the longer nights and the colder air machine to start up again. This will then start to usher in more autumnal weather.
Oh, don’t go there yet! Let’s enjoy some more fine and warm summer days but keep the raincoat handy too for those rainmaker days.
Watch Daniel Corbett's outlook for the rest of summer on TVNZ+
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