Barbara Dreaver: Peters' Pacific kiss-and-make-up trip vital as tensions rise

Analysis: Pacific Correspondent Barbara Dreaver says New Zealand's role in the region is vital as international conflicts increase.

As the country emerges from the holiday stupor, regional politics is already revving up.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters is off on Sunday to the central Pacific country Kiribati, clearly on a kiss and make up trip.

It's been almost a year to the day since TVNZ broke the story about aid being suspended to Kiribati after a lack of engagement despite NZ's repeated attempts.

The final straw was when President Taneti Maamau pulled out of meeting with our Foreign Minister just days before the NZ delegation was due to leave. Peters was furious, saying: "We've been an extraordinarily generous partner and I don't think we're getting the reciprocal reaction we expect...

"Of course it's a bad event, accepting we do not have an option if we've been assisting an economy and we've had a breakdown in communications your job is to ensure taxpayers' money is part of an accountability process."

In March, while the Government decided not to cut aid to Kiribati, the diplomatic rift remained.

But that was so 2025.

Things have changed and now, according to a statement yesterday, “New Zealand is a steadfast partner with Kiribati". Peters adding: "We are committed to building on our long-standing relationship across a range of areas, as we work together to enhance resilience, prosperity and security in the Pacific."

This is a promising advance. A good relationship with Kiribati, which straddles the equator stretching across three and a half million square kilometres of ocean, is critical.

Not just because the country is strategically valuable and closely aligned with China - a combination which sends chills down the spines of western allies.

And not just because being on good terms with Pacific countries is the right thing to do, which it is.

It's because of regional unity - or lack of it - and given the alarming and mounting number of conflicts around the world, and the deterioration of the rules-based international order, which the US is clearly dipping its toes into, the Pacific's unity is not only important but necessary.

Resolving the fallout with Kiribati will be a relief for our foreign affairs bods but then there's the issue with the Cook Islands which is far from resolved.

The relationship between Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, who remains defiant about signing secret agreements (which were later made public) with China - despite being in free association with New Zealand, remains strained to put it mildly.

Development aid of around $30 million to our realm country remains suspended and the country will feel the pinch with that in the months to come.

The country also has an upcoming election this year.

One promising move from the Cook Islands has been the appointment a new Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Immigration, Elizabeth Wright-Koteka, who was the Cook Islands High Commissioner to New Zealand between 2018-2022.

Part of her job description is to rebuild and enhance bilateral relations with Aotearoa. Wright-Koteka is respected for her leadership skills and grasp of the complexities on the international stage.

Professor Steven Ratuva, Canterbury University's Pro-Vice Chancellor Pacific says international alignments and aid can affect pacific unity, creating tension.

"A lot of the aid is tied to political leveraging and geopolitics.. Australia and New Zealand, although they may say that they don't have political strings, they do subtly. Sometimes we're weaponising it against the aid recipients and that has been a big shift over the years," he told 1 News.

New Zealand is seen as a leader in the region - a gentler partner than Australia, although our neighbour across the ditch invests more into the Pacific than any other country.

Peters, for the most part, is respected in the Pacific and he certainly enjoys the statesman role. In fact a media release put out yesterday by his office makes the point he will be the first NZ Foreign Minister to visit all 17 other of the Pacific Island Forum member countries within a single term.

As well as visiting Kiribati he is heading to Palau. This is significant as that is where this year's Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) is going to be held and Peters is making sure he gets some input into how the regional meeting is held, especially as New Zealand is hosting PIF in 2027.

Peters confirms that “New Zealand and Palau are coordinating closely on the critical regional issues for the Pacific as we both prepare to host the Forum".

It's no easy job bringing 18 Pacific countries together when they have such unique challenges and vastly different levels of resources and poverty. It's not one Pacific by any stretch of the imagination - and what one country may want, another might not.

Differing geopolitical allegiances also cause hostility and that's a difficult one to navigate.

All but one of the 18 Pacific Islands forum leaders are male and they're nearly all old men. What a refreshing relief it will be to see Tonga's new Prime Minister Lord Fakafānua, aged a mere 40, in the leaders lineup.

A highly intelligent man, he has a major headache on his hands - two-thirds of the Kingdom's debt repayments flow to China - repaying a loan used to rebuild the capital after the 2006 riots.

In fact more money goes to Beijing than to Tonga's own health system. China's influence can be seen throughout the Pacific and, add to this the unpredictability of US foreign policy, and this mixes up a recipe for tension.

Samoa also has a new Prime Minister, Laaulialemalietoa Leuatea Schmidt, who currently faces criminal charges.

There have been moves in Samoa but also across the region, even at the Pacific Islands forum meeting, to muzzle the media which is never a good sign.

Yet the Pacific must remain united and strong as a group as climate change becomes an ever increasing threat and the international political landscape shifts with the potential for conflict impacting our region.

But what will we have to concede to keep good relationships and maintain Pacific unity? That is the question in the year ahead.