The All Blacks will probably have to get past world champions South Africa and potentially France to reach the final of the 2027 World Cup, a challenging assignment head coach Scott Robertson believes “you have to embrace”.
Last night’s draw in Sydney, which put the All Blacks in Pool A alongside hosts Australia, Chile (who made their debut World Cup appearance two years ago in France), and Hong Kong China, who have never appeared at the global tournament, has put the Springboks and New Zealand, the world’s No.1 and No.2 teams, on a quarter-final collision course.
Neither nation will likely be happy with the turn of events but, as the last two sides drawn from the top band of seeded teams, both will have felt a sense of inevitability they would meet early in the knockout phase due to the way the draw is structured.
South Africa was drawn in Pool B alongside Italy, Georgia and Romania.
New Zealand, should they top their pool, will likely play Tonga or Samoa in a final round of 16 match – a new concept to allow for the extra four nations in the tournament – before facing the Boks.
South Africa, who will almost certainly top their pool, will likely face similarly modest competition in their qualifier before meeting the All Blacks.
Having one of the grand finalists of the last World Cup knocked out at the quarter-final stage is clearly not ideal in terms of the competition’s format, as Robertson agreed in a call with New Zealand media this morning.
Asked whether the two top sides should be on separate sides of the draw, he replied: “That’s a good question and I can’t answer it from a formatting point of view but that’s what you sort of felt – you’d split the two sides from the pool [phase] and you’d merge somewhere in the middle.”
Robertson added: “That’s one of the anomalies of the format…”
France, named in Pool D, will likely top a group also featuring Japan, USA and Samoa.
That would potentially put them into a final 16 match against Pool E’s Scotland, which, if they won, would have them face Fiji or Wales in a quarter-final and either the Boks or All Blacks in a semifinal.
Should the All Blacks lose to Australia, a match that will probably open the tournament in Perth, they will move to the other side of the draw and potentially face England, currently the No.3 team in the world, in a quarter-final.
"We play South Africa a lot and it’s [potentially] another time to have a crack at it," Robertson said of a quarter-final against their big rivals. "You’re going to have to face someone with their form to win it. The quarter-final – if that’s the way it works out, then it’s just part of the draw. You have to embrace it."
Drawing the pools just under two years out from the Rugby World Cup may appear a nonsense compared with the FIFA World Cup (generally six months out), but in the past they were done even earlier.
The draw for the 2023 Rugby World Cup was made almost three years prior. One of the anomalies of the last tournament had the top-ranked Ireland, reigning champions South Africa and improving Scotland in the same pool.
Additionally, top four sides at the last tournament – Ireland, France, New Zealand and South Africa – were all on the same side of the draw.
After the last World Cup, World Rugby promised changes to the draw timing – which they have made to an extent - but there will be a commercial imperative in the organisation insisting on a draw two years out to allow supporters’ travel packages (from which they receive a cut) to be marketed and sold.
The match venues and specifics of the draw will be revealed on February 3.
At this point the standout pool games of the next tournament appear to be Australia v New Zealand, Ireland v Scotland, and England v Wales. Argentina v Fiji in Pool C will also be pivotal.
"There’s no guarantee [of an Australia v All Blacks tournament opener]… but it would be a pretty special moment and one that as a player you’d look forward to," Robertson said of a potentially early match-up against the hosts. "It’s so close to home – there will be a lot of Kiwis there.”
Skipper Scott Barrett said: "The new format’s exciting. You’re going to have to win four big games in a row and that will certainly put the pressure on the depth of squads. Obviously, having Australia in our pool is going to make for some fireworks in the round robin stage."
Before that, of course, is an extremely challenging 2026 schedule for the All Blacks, who host Ireland, Italy and France in the Nations Cup in the middle of the year before touring South Africa in the "Greatest Rivalry" trip.
"We play South Africa six times before the World Cup," Robertson said. "There’s a lot to do before that. There’s a lot of rugby and chances for us to grow and get better as a team.”
Robertson, who oversaw a 10-3 win-loss record with the All Blacks this year, added: “I’ve said it before but world rugby is the closest it’s ever been... South Africa won their last three World Cup games by a point [a 29-28 quarter-final win over France, 16-15 semifinal win over England and 12-11 final victory over the All Blacks].
“The margins are minimal. You know when you get to the World Cup, you have to have everything online – all the permutations, your self control… there’s going to be a card that can play a massive role in a game… everyone will be homing in on that.”
2027 Rugby World Cup pools
Pool A: New Zealand, Chile, Australia, Hong Kong China
Pool B: South Africa, Italy, Georgia, Romania
Pool C: Argentina, Fiji, Spain, Canada.
Pool D: Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal.
Pool E: France, Japan, USA, Samoa
Pool F: England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe
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