Analysis: South Africa showed a ruthlessness and innovation that could expose New Zealand during next year's "Greatest Rivalry" tour, argues Patrick McKendry.
There was a moment, just before halftime during South Africa’s victory over Ireland in Dublin at the weekend that will give the All Blacks an idea of what they will face over their four Tests against the Springboks next year – as if they did not already know.
Ireland, who had already lost lock James Ryan to a red card and backs Sam Prendergast and Jack Crowley to yellow cards in an extraordinary half at Aviva Stadium, were staring into the void of another defensive scrum.
The halftime siren had already sounded but, rather than assume the Boks would continue their set piece dominance with his current front row, head coach Rassie Erasmus replaced props Boan Venter and Thomas du Toit with Gerhard Steenekamp and Wilco Louw, two men weighing 130kg each.
As a statement of intent, it was a bit like throwing a piano to a drowning man. The Irish, under pressure for the entire 40 minutes, duly collapsed under the strain, referee Matthew Carley awarding the Boks a penalty try and Irish loosehead Andrew Porter yellow-carded to reduce his side to 12 players.
Credit must go to the Irish for managing the second half as well as they did. Despite their temporary numerical disadvantages and a scrum in total disarray, they outscored the Boks 6-5 after the break, the world No.1-ranked side winning a chaotic match 24-13 when the home team appeared set for a humiliation.
However, the fallout has been significant, with English ref Carley’s performance coming under scrutiny – a view from a neutral is that he followed the law to near perfection (perhaps apart from missing a no-arms tackle by Boks No.10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu early in the first half), as difficult as it must have been for Ireland's fans to watch.
There have been discussions on social media about the role the scrum plays in Test rugby, and whether it can be too dominant – anathema to rugby purists – and a topic commented on by former top referee Nigel Owens, who today responded: "Rugby is a game for all shapes and sizes. Depower the scrum anymore and you may as well watch a rugby league match. It will destroy the community game if there is no place for your good old-fashioned type of prop. Keep meddling with the game and you will destroy it."
What must be beyond dispute is South Africa’s status as easily the best team in the world and the importance within that rise of Erasmus, an inspirational coach who is prepared to take risks with his bench selections and timing of substitutions and who inevitably gets it right.
The depth and quality of players available to the man who made the "Bomb Squad" famous helps, of course, but so does his proactivity.
Compare and contrast to All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson – who has never gone beyond a traditional 5-3 forwards-backs split for a Test and far more reactive to events playing out in front of him.
The Beauden Barrett situation during the England defeat at Twickenham is a good example.
The first-five, struggling with a bruised leg and who missed a crucial touch finder in the first half that helped swing momentum towards the English, was clearly not 100%, but Robertson waited until 15 minutes into the second half to replace him with Damian McKenzie when an earlier substitution may have been more prudent (and would have definitely shown more faith in McKenzie’s abilities at first-five).
Indeed, England head coach Steve Borthwick, a northerner (and former Test lock) not given to extravagance, showed more daring than Robertson with his “Pom Squad” which thoroughly outperformed the All Blacks during a 33-19 victory, their first against New Zealand since 2019.
So, what of the All Blacks’ prospects for their "Greatest Rivalry" tour next year?
Perhaps the kindest view of Robertson’s men is they finished the year having done little to banish their frustrating inconsistencies but they have at least developed 19 new players over the past 24 months.
However, with the Rugby World Cup draw scheduled to be held in Sydney next Wednesday night, and a gruelling seven-match (including three Tests) tour of South Africa (another Test between the nations will be held at a neutral venue) on the horizon, the requirement for results (if not consistently high-quality performances) is paramount.
Questions remain over whether the Boks – some approaching their mid-30s – can maintain their dominance all the way to the World Cup in 2027. On the other hand, there will be questions about how the All Blacks can stay with what will be a relentless physical onslaught in South Africa next year.
Another burning question for Robertson is whether he can get Richie Mo'unga, currently ineligible, on the tour. Having the former incumbent playmaker playing in the NPC in the deep south or far north while the All Blacks are playing on the high veld would smack of self-sabotage by New Zealand Rugby.
In a recent interview with 1News, Mo'unga said he was "hopeful and optimistic" he would make the tour.
This All Blacks team – with only two (Cam Roigard and Will Jordan) making World Rugby's team of the year in 2025 that included six Boks (four of them forwards) – appears to need all the quality it can muster.
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