Analysis: Should we expect All Blacks coaches to have 100% winning records? And when are defeats acceptable? Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss.
PM: Scotty,
Before we get into the final All Blacks’ Test of the year, let’s quickly review England which featured what for Scott Robertson’s men is unfortunately a now predictable mid-game slump.
We’ve spoken about these before, but can you put a finger on why they keep happening?
SS: It's the same malaise, Pat. This is a team still wrestling with shape, on attack and defence. The trouble is in the transition. When things are going to plan they can look like world beaters, but on transition - after errors or on kick receipt - they are too often missing their marks.
Given the margins in Test footy, a team doesn't have to be out by much to find itself overwhelmed by momentum shifts. Get into a poor position for a tackle and get bounced, misalign on attack and squander a scoring opportunity.
Assistant coach Tamati Ellison admitted today that this is an ongoing issue for the team, but insisted the players and coaches are all on the same page, albeit with this intriguing caveat:
"Sometimes you can be on the same page but be on different lines."
I get a sense there is a restlessness within the squad, a desperation to break out of heavy structure and play with a bit more freedom. Do you think similarly, or are you seeing something a little different?
PM: That’s an interesting comment from Ellison – the obvious question is who is accountable for that?
I would suggest it is the coaches and senior players. It’s difficult from the outside to see how the coaches are performing but it is clear that the game drivers are not taking control as they should.
I wrote in the aftermath of the Twickenham meltdown that there is a very inexperienced spine to this team; Simon Parker, Peter Lakai, Billy Proctor, Leroy Carter, Josh Lord, Pasilio Tosi, Cortez Ratima and even Leicester Fainga’anuku have not played a lot of international rugby, and I believe that, and a leadership deficit from the experienced men, is contributing to the issues.
Your mention of “shape” is a good one because the All Blacks’ attacking structure early against England, with Will Jordan coming into the line and outflanking the defence, looked very good.
For whatever reason, they went away from it and, apart from Jordan’s try in the second half, hardly fired a shot. Defensively, it’s difficult to remember the All Blacks conceding two such simple tries from set pieces.
Wales are the final cab off the rank and such is their spluttering engine, only a comprehensive victory from the All Blacks will be seen as acceptable by the New Zealand public.
There will be wholesale changes to the All Blacks, with Scott Robertson playing men who have held only tackle bags so far on this tour. Do you think that anyone in particular deserves an opportunity with view to moving closer to the main squad of 23?
SS: There is definitely a slot for Ruben Love in this Test. I'm not sure about starting him at 10 - a position he admits he would love to fill - but a start at fullback with the option to shift in later in the match seems not only plausible but desirable.
That does beg the question, though: does Beauden Barrett get this week off with Damian McKenzie starting at 10? I think McKenzie has earned the right if he wants that opportunity.
Weirdly, the All Blacks could add a ton of experience this weekend, with Rieko Ioane on the right wing and Anton Leinert-Brown slotting into centre outside Quinn Tupaea.
That Chiefs combo could unlock a lot of opportunity for the outsides, and provide some much needed security and communication on defence.
Cam Roigard has proven to be the number one choice at halfback but the others are in desperate need of game experience at his level. Cortez Ratima needs to show he can control tempo from the opening whistle, and I think he'll get a chance to do just that.
Up front, it would be good to see big Sami Taukei'aho get a run, with Sam Darry securing a starting spot. It's tempting to see Peter Lakai or Du'Plessis Kirifi at seven. Ardie Savea has nothing to prove, but another shuffle of the loose trio could provide vital intel for what shapes as a massive 2026.
How does your team stack up, and do you think this group has the cajones to roll the dice and ante up on experimentation?
PM: I agree with Love getting a start – and it will probably be at 15 with a move to 10 to replace McKenzie, as you suggest. Ioane, Lienert-Brown, Ratima and Taukei’aho will all probably get starts, with Caleb Clarke returning to the left wing.
Wales are at a low ebb, rugby-wise, and I can’t see them breaking a 72-year drought against the All Blacks on Sunday morning.
But, in terms of the selectors having the cajones to do something out of the box, I think we should look back to last year’s final fixture – Italy - to remind ourselves how risk averse this group is.
Last November they had an opportunity to freshen things up after a long year but largely stuck with the tried and tested and the majority of the 23 looked fatigued as they battled their way to an unconvincing victory.
Robertson and Co will probably take that into account but I doubt there will be many surprises, or an introduction into the long-awaited 6-2 bench split.
Back to the pivotal No.10 position, and with Beauden Barrett carrying a haematoma on his right thigh which clearly affected him at Twickenham, there is likely to be a good opportunity for McKenzie, but his long-term future very much appears to be as a back-up or bench player.
Meanwhile, I’d love to get your opinion on World Rugby’s Player of the Year nominations which consists of four Boks – the perennial nominee Pieter-Steph du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche and solitary Frenchman Louis Bielle-Biarrey.
No room for Ardie Savea. Significant or a bit of a sideshow?
SS: Yes, three Bok forwards and a French winger. It’s always surprising when you don’t see a genuine playmaker in the shortlist (Finn Russell?) but look, the Boks are the world’s number one team and it’s their pack that does most of the damage, so I have no qualms with the nominees. As always, these awards are highly subjective, but PSDT has won twice already and would be my favourite to win again.
Wales won’t be winning again, but this assignment feels a no-win affair for the All Blacks, in much the same way the French series at home did. They will be expected to win big and will get little credit if, or when, they do. Should they scramble their way through another unconvincing 80 minutes, it will be an uncomfortable summer.
I was thinking about that in the aftermath of the Twickenham defeat. The All Blacks coach never has an easy ride, and fair enough. But that expectation to win suddenly feels counterproductive to development of players when the team is in a state of flux.
Robertsons win rate is 73%. Rassie Erasmus’ is 74%. Yes, the latter has two World Cups on the CV but to me it shows that the in-between years are more about development than results. It’s not a luxury All Blacks fans will ever extend to their coach.
Does the dial need to shift on that?
PM: Good question and my initial reaction is – no.
The All Blacks and New Zealand Rugby leverage every last drop from their winning record and reputation for ruthlessness and excellence; witness the love-fest with members of the New Zealand and international media in Chicago at the start of this tour.
I don’t think you can have it both ways. You can’t go on and on about the culture, mystique and high standards of the All Blacks and then expect your core constituency to accept losing in the manner they have this year and last year.
A Grand Slam victory would have papered over the cracks revealed by the two historic defeats to Argentina and South Africa in the Rugby Championship. The latest one by England highlighted the very obvious flaws in this side and the day those, and overall winning percentages, are brushed over by All Blacks fans is the day rugby loses its grip on this country.
Scott Robertson may get there, but the clock is ticking. What is beyond dispute is that the performances have not been consistently good enough.
Finally, let me just climb off my high horse here and ask: Do you agree or is that a bit much?
Not too much at all. You’re exactly right about the marketing side of the team. Sporting success as a marketing strategy is a fraught affair, but that’s the train this organisation hopped aboard many years ago.
Whatever happens on the weekend, there will be - and should be - some seriously brutal reviews. By that I mean no stone left unturned honesty and self-reflection on the part of the coaching and playing groups.
A win over Wales won’t cure all ills, but a satisfying victory will make the plane ride home, and the summer, a lot more palatable.
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