Analysis: Head coach Scott Robertson will roll the dice for his team's final Test of the year – with a big question mark over how far he will go, writes Patrick McKendry.
The Grand Slam is gone but the All Blacks’ northern tour continues and their final Test of the year – against Wales in Cardiff – will serve as a measure of the team’s resilience, if not the conservatism or otherwise of the head coach.
Robertson and his fellow selectors played it as straight as they could in terms of selections for the 33-19 defeat against England.
It could be argued that their decision making was characterised by a five-three forwards-backs bench split, which included Anton Lienert-Brown, who had not played a Test since being yellow carded against Argentina in Cordoba in August, and which looked decidedly dour compared with Steve Borthwick’s six-two ratio which included two loose forwards.
There is no question Robertson and company will roll the dice against Wales, ranked No.12 in the world and who last weekend won their second Test of the year when sneaking past Japan 24-23 with the last kick of the game at Principality Stadium. Their only other win this year was also against Japan – in Kobe in July.
It is just a matter of how far the selectors will go. Ruben Love, who has been under-employed since starting at fullback against France in Hamilton in July, will almost certainly wear the No.15 jersey and will probably replace first-five Damian McKenzie in the second half, with Beauden Barrett potentially ruled out with a leg haematoma suffered during the deflating defeat to England.
Lienert-Brown will likely start in the midfield, with Sevu Reece, a member of the squad of 36 but whose only recent game time has come via the All Blacks XV in Bath recently, likely to start on the right wing.
Rieko Ioane, another who has not featured in any of the three Tests on this tour, and who recently posted this message to his 348,000 followers on Instagram – “blessed is the one who perseveres under trial” – is also clearly due a start; either in the midfield or on the left wing.
Cortez Ratima and Finlay Christie will likely be the halfback options, in that order, due to Cam Roigard’s ankle injury which forced him from the pitch against England. Fabian Holland, a late withdrawal from the Twickenham Test due to illness, is a probability to start in the second row alongside skipper Scott Barrett.
Loose forward Du’Plessis Kirifi is also likely to play a more central role, with back-up hooker George Bell likely to see action off the bench at least.
Any focus on Robertson’s bench at Twickenham, which included front rowers Tamaiti Williams, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Pasilio Tosi, lock Sam Darry, loose forward Wallace Sititi, Ratima, Lienert-Brown and outside back/first-five McKenzie, may seem a red herring but underlines the All Blacks’ safety-first attitude which is due an overhaul.
England’s “Pom Squad”, a play on South Africa’s “Bomb Squad”, which boils down to having six, rather than five, forwards as potential impact players (along with two versatile backs), proved hugely effective at Twickenham, with 20-year-old loose forward Henry Pollock living up to his hype.
There is an element of risk in such an approach – more than two injuries in Borthwick’s backline would have tested his team, but the Springboks have successfully used it for years with a huge upside and Robertson has enough “hybrid” players, such as Ardie Savea, Leicester Fainga’anuku and Leroy Carter, to get away with it.
Robertson probably won’t go there for Wales as he seeks to protect what is currently a 9-3 win-loss record this year.
But, after promising members of the New Zealand media recently that he would review every element of a rugby year which has included a record loss to South Africa, an historic defeat in Argentina, and another failure after conceding 25 unanswered points to England, it would be remiss of him, and others, not to scrutinise his bench selections – particularly given his team’s second-half slumps.
Robertson's final match-day squad of the year is scheduled to be named at 9pm on Thursday NZT.
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