A potential return for Rieko Ioane against England is one in a series of issues discussed by 1News rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Pat McKendry.
PM: Scotty,
We’ll get into the performance against Scotland shortly, but let’s start with the obvious selection issue for the All Blacks this week as they prepare to play England at Twickenham: Who will replace Caleb Clarke in the No.11 jersey? Related, what about the No.14 jersey after Leroy Carter’s quiet game at Murrayfield (while he was on the field)?
SS: It’s a good question because whoever gets the left wing spot is going to have a busy night under the high ball and chasing back on the kicks that are likely to come from the boot of George Ford.
Could they perhaps consider big Leicester Fainga’anuku as a left wing option which would make way for Rieko Ioane to slot on to the bench? I know the presence of Caleb Tangitau in the camp this week could lead to some ruminations about him slotting straight in, but that would be a long shot for me.
I think Carter gets another chance. He should atone for his scrappy effort at Murrayfield, and losing one of the back three is disruptive enough without forcing another change on a unit that must be very well connected at Twickenham.
Do you see other options? And how does a potential 6-2 bench sit with you?
PM: I believe Razor will keep his midfield intact. Quinn Tupaea and Fainga’anuku are building a handy combination – both are good over the ball, both are defending well and both have good offloading games. Fainga’anuku’s continuity game in particular has been deadly for the All Blacks over the past couple of weeks.
If so, it could mean a recall for Rieko Ioane on the left which would keep Billy Proctor on the bench as midfield cover. Ioane has performed well at Twickenham in the past and the occasion won’t faze him. But you’re right about England’s high-ball tactics – whoever starts there has to be prepared to climb high and often.
Meanwhile, a 6-2 bench split, you say? I’ve been waiting for one all year only to be disappointed. To me it makes sense, especially with Cam Roigard able to play 80 minutes or close to it. I too think Carter will retain his place because there is already enough change happening to that backline, and the right wing can cover halfback at a stretch.
Being able to select two locks or two loose forwards on the bench instead of one of each could be a game changer for the All Blacks who have enjoyed good value from their impact players recently.
You clearly have thoughts on the matter…
SS: You’re right that Carter (and, to a lesser extent, Damian McKenzie) can cover halfback but, because the No.9 is so important to the All Blacks’ running game, I feel they don’t want to take the chance without specialist back-up. The only way I could see it working is if McKenzie stays on the bench alongside a midfield utility, such as Anton Lienert-Brown.
The 6-2 intrigues me. There is a part of me that believes it will become the norm as backlines continue to evolve along generalist lines. There are seemingly only two genuinely sacred backline positions now – halfback and first-five and, even now, there is the 10-15 double play in action.
The Springboks rolled out a centre-cum-flanker on the weekend, which is about the most South African thing I have seen this year. Rugby league influence, anyone?
I can understand the reasons for the All Blacks sticking to their tried-and-true balance, but there is no doubt Steve Borthwick's stacked bench of big loosies points to where he thinks the game will be won.
Which brings me back to Murrayfield, and discipline. I don't think those cards are a tough fix. A couple of moments under pressure and nothing more sinister.
But, do you think this All Blacks team is in danger of being tagged with the recidivist label?
PM: Not really. Remember, their discipline was very good against Ireland (who lost a player to a red card) and indeed better than the opposition’s. Against Scotland, a different referee may not have found Ardie Savea guilty of collapsing a maul (from which the opposition scored anyway).
Carter’s foot trip was not clever but Darcy Graham made the most of it when he saw he wasn’t going to win the ball back, and Wallace Sititi’s bungled attempt at an intercept was a gamble that backfired.
It was almost a perfect storm of cards – in terms of handing the initiative to Scotland – but they were all unrelated.
The officials at Twickenham are unlikely to be swayed by what happened last weekend, although they may be influenced by a partisan crowd who will make the most of every big-screen replay that shows an All Black transgression.
What concerns me more from an All Blacks’ perspective is the way they concede points in big bunches. It has become a trend this year and it is related to their inability to wrest momentum from their opponents.
It hints at a fragility that will be exposed by England on Sunday morning if they don’t recognise it and have strategies in place to rectify it.
Do you agree? And, secondly, where do you think they can hurt England?
SS: All good points and, for what it’s worth, the big-screen influence in rugby is a partisan problem without a solution. Every home broadcaster is guilty of gilding the lily on moments they know the crowd will respond to, but that’s another column for another day.
I’m with you on discipline. And the fact the All Blacks leak points in bushels is related. They tend to be slow to respond on two counts: one, to regroup after penalty concession, and two: to slot into their systems on transition defence.
The way to break down the All Blacks, ironically, is to beat them at their own game on speed.
In terms of breaking down the English, I think looking for space in behind the line is priority. If Beauden Barrett has one of those kicking games that exposes space through variety, the skill and execution of the All Blacks’ midfield may prove too much.
This may be a new midfield combination in black, but there is also a green tinge to England’s 12-13 combo.
The other key factor will be speed of breakdown. Steve Borthwick has picked edge defenders and genuine hunters. If the All Blacks go to ground they will need numbers over the ball.
The better option, and we will see this, is to run with an offload heavy game and to drag the England loose forward trio from pillar to post. That in turn will create running opportunities for Roigard, whom we know has a sixth sense for a gap.
This England pack will be confrontational. Do you think the set piece is another crucial battlefield this weekend? If so, who gets the edge and why?
PM: I agree with regards to the breakdown – and England have threats there – and yes, the set piece is always critical.
There have been a few lineout wobbles over the past fortnight but overall it’s an area of improvement for the All Blacks, who have coped pretty well with Scott Barrett’s absence (fortunately, he appears on the brink of a return).
Defending the lineout drive has not been as impressive – and this is one area England may hope to exploit.
The scrum has improved throughout. I’m not sure what ref Nic Berry was seeing when he penalised the All Blacks for one alleged scrum offence at Murrayfield but overall it became dominant in Chicago and Edinburgh and that’s a testament to bench front rowers Tamaiti Williams, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Pasilio Tosi.
That trio could be a handful for England in the final quarter. England may have an edge in the lineout via Maro Itoje, but I’m picking an All Black win at scrum-time.
The All Blacks will also seek to tidy up re-starts because they were vulnerable there at Murrayfield and multiple lapses are not acceptable at this level.
Let’s wrap it up. Who wins and why?
SS: Tough assignment as ever Pat. Twickers is never easy. In saying that, All Blacks for me by five on X factor.
You?
PM: Yes, it may be tight. All Blacks by two thanks to a late McKenzie penalty.
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