The public is going colder on Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins’ leadership, with the approval rating for both the major party leaders taking a dive in the latest 1News/Verian poll.
However, there are no major swings in their parties’ results, with the coalition retaining its hold on power.
If an election were to be held today, the poll indicates the right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 63 seats, enough to form a government.
Leaders of the National and Labour parties are failing to gel with the voting public according to the latest 1News Verian poll. (Source: 1News)
The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 60 seats - an increase of 2 seats on the last poll but still short of the majority needed to form a coalition.
The result is similar to the last Verian poll in August.
But the leaders’ approval ratings have shown significant change since that question was last asked back in the autumn.
Approval Ratings
Eligible voters were asked whether they approved or disapproved of how National leader Luxon has been handling his job as Prime Minister.
The proportion who approved was 38%, while 52% disapproved and 10% didn't know or preferred not to say. This gives the National Party leader an overall score of -14, his lowest approval rating as Prime Minister.
Since he took the top job, 1News has surveyed voters on this question three times. In June 2024 Luxon scored -5, in March/April of this year he scored -7.
The poll also asked if people approved or disapproved of the way Hipkins was handling his job as leader of the Labour Party.
For Hipkins, 42% approved, 41% disapproved and 17% didn't know or preferred not to say. This gives Chris Hipkins an overall score of +1. That’s his lowest approval rating since the 2023 election and a sharp drop-off since March/April.
In June 2024 Hipkins scored +13, in March/April of this year he scored +16%.
The approval rating is calculated by subtracting the disapproves from the approves.
Groups more likely to back the PM included National Party supporters (80%), ACT Party supporters (65%) and men aged over 50 (49%).
Whereas those backing Hipkins included Labour Party supporters (67%) and university graduates (49%).
Luxon dismissed his falling rating in the approval numbers. He said: "It's not really about me. It's actually about me making sure I lead a team that does the job for New Zealanders.”
He said he wasn't worried about his job and said it was Labour that put the country "in a mess".
Hipkins also brushed off the results of the poll and said he didn't read much into his own approval rating dropping by 15 points.
"Being the leader of the opposition, you expect your ratings to take a bit of a hit,” he said. “It's a more negative job. But we're focused on making sure we're getting Labour ready to win the next election."
Voters, he said, could see "the country's going backwards, and all Christopher Luxon's offering them is blame and excuses".
Party vote
There was little change in voters’ support for the parties in today’s poll.
National has remained steady on 34% support, its third result in a row on that number.
Labour has fallen 1%, down from 33% in August to 32% now.
The Greens are up 1% to 11%, gaining back half the ground they lost in the last poll.
New Zealand First is holding steady on 9% and ACT is also unchanged on 8%.
Te Pāti Māori has slipped 1%, down to 3%. The party would though keep the same number of seats provided they held on to their six electorates.
A total of 1014 eligible voters were surveyed from October 4 to October 8. The proportion of those who didn't know who they’d vote for, or refused to say, dropped 1% to 11% since the last poll.
Today’s numbers mean National would have 42 seats in Parliament, down 7 on their current allocation, Labour would have 40, up 6. The Greens would have 14, down by 1.
New Zealand First would have 12 seats, up by 4, while ACT would have 9 seats, down 2.
Te Pāti Māori would have 6 MPs, as they do at present.
There would be an extra 3 seats in a 123-seat Parliament as a result of an overhang.
Preferred PM
In the preferred prime minister stakes, National’s Luxon has risen by 1% and is now on 21%, a slight improvement on the last poll which was his worst result in two years.
Labour’s Hipkins has dropped slightly by 1% to 18%.
New Zealand First’s Winston Peters is up 1% to 8%.
The Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is also up from 4% to 6% and ACT’s David Seymour is up from 4% to 5%.
Rounding out the honourable mentions on 1% are former PM Jacinda Ardern, Te Pāti Māori's Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones, Education Minister Erica Stanford and senior Labour MP Kieran McAnulty. Greens Co-Leader Marama Davidson is a new entrant.
Economic outlook
The public's view of the state of the economy continues to be one of scepticism for many.
Economic optimism has remained steady at 36%, but pessimism has skyrocketed - going up 18%, from 21% to 39%.
1News Verian Poll: Leader approval ratings plummet as economic confidence drops, watch on TVNZ+
The result comes after poor GDP results, which saw growth shrink by 0.9% in the June quarter.
Full results
Party vote
National – 34% (Steady since August)
Labour – 32% (down 1%)
Green – 11% (up 1%)
New Zealand First – 9% (steady)
ACT – 8% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 3% (down 1%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1% (steady)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party- 1% (up 1%)
Don't know / refused to say – 11% (down 1%)
Seats in the House
National – 42
Labour – 40
Greens – 14
New Zealand First – 12
ACT - 9
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Total: 123
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 21% (up 1%)
Chris Hipkins – 18% (down 1%)
Winston Peters – 8% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (up 2%)
David Seymour – 5% (up 1%)
See the full results and methodology here
Luxon approval here, Hipkins approval here
Between October 4 and October 8 2025, 1014 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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