Analysis: The problem with the All Blacks' depth-building project

Coach Scott Robertson says depth is the key to winning the World Cup but that may be creating inconsistencies in the here and now, argues Patrick McKendry.

Seven wins and two defeats this year is not the record All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson would have hoped for as he prepares for four challenging Tests on the northern tour but his goal of building depth in all positions is heading in the right direction.

One wonders, however, whether that over-riding goal is contributing to an inconsistency which has plagued the All Blacks all year.

Further, has it added to a vulnerability that created history for the wrong reasons – losing to the Pumas in Argentina for the first time and to the Boks at the calamity in the Cake Tin?

We will get back to those potential unintended consequences.

The day after the All Blacks' 28-14 victory over the Wallabies in Perth – achieved in torrential rain after their win at Eden Park which allowed them to retain the Bledisloe Cup – there was, according to Robertson, one major takeaway from a tournament that hung in the balance until the final round.

“We have some great depth and competition,” he said. “We’ve given some guys a crack at it and they’ve taken it. Test footy takes a lot out of you, mentally and physically, so we’re really pleased we’re building that depth and competition.”

Robertson has made no secret of his Project 4-4-4 plan, a bid to build depth over four years for New Zealand to win a fourth World Cup by having four players contesting for each position.

After three victories over England, two over Australia and a win and loss each against South Africa and Argentina, Robertson is clearly making progress towards his goal – even allowing for the injuries which have ruled lock Tupou Vaa’i, prop Tyrel Lomax, halfback Noah Hotham and wing Emoni Narawa out of the northern tour.

Robertson has built cover at lock, loose forward, in the midfield and on the wing, with Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Billy Proctor and Leroy Carter enjoying solid starts to their Test careers and, in the case of Holland and Carter, possibly better than Robertson could have hoped for.

Holland, 22, started all three Tests against England in his debut series, the two Tests against Argentina and both Bledisloe Cup clashes and impressed as a reliable and tough lock with a huge capacity for work.

Carter, the 26-year-old former sevens international, started the last three Tests against South Africa and Australia (twice), scored a try in all three, and revealed himself to be an alert finisher as well as a man willing to put his head in potentially dangerous places for the good of his team.

Like Holland, he appeared unfazed by the step up to international level.

So far, so good for Roberson’s depth-building goal.

However, the other side of pursuing such a strategy is it requires near constant selection tweaks to give players opportunities.

Is that one reason why the All Blacks have been so inconsistent in this Rugby Championship?

The weekend’s win was the first time they won back-to-back in the tournament and it was achieved via a backline cohesion that has been otherwise conspicuous by its absence.

Improving the team's consistency was a major goal of Robertson’s as soon as the All Blacks fell to the Pumas in Buenos Aires. They responded against South Africa at Eden Park and started well against the Boks in Wellington before another collapse – the worst in their history – humbled them badly.

Moreover, near constant changes in selection requires careful and consistent messaging to the players and one wonders whether this has been achieved as well as Robertson and his assistants may have liked.

It was noticeable after the Perth Test when Quinn Tupaea had been outstanding in the relatively unfamiliar position of centre, with Robertson reluctant to wax lyrical about a player who helped set up the All Blacks’ first try for Leroy Carter with a powerful carry and then scored two of his own within three minutes.

Robertson said something along the lines of Tupaea “would be better for the run”, a comment seemingly out of keeping with the player’s performance.

It was noticeable, too, that Tupaea, the best All Black on the park, was withdrawn after 57 minutes for Rieko Ioane – clearly a planned move that Robertson did not want to deviate from.

Ioane’s cameo off the bench was his first involvement in a Test since he was dropped following the All Blacks’ victory over the Boks at Eden Park.

Ioane, shifted from the midfield to the left wing and then out of the team, had to wait a while for his chance, but other players may be getting restless due to a lack of game time and with no obvious opportunities in sight.

For example, midfielder Anton Lienert-Brown, who started the dead rubber against England in Hamilton and played a couple of minutes off the bench at the end of the win over Argentina in Cordoba before being yellow carded for an accidental head clash in a tackle, may be wondering what he has done wrong.

Lienert-Brown, a man who has played 87 Tests and recommitted this year to New Zealand Rugby until 2028, has not been seen in a match-day squad since – a run of five Tests.

He will almost certainly make the "Grand Slam" tour for his quality and versatility, but an involvement in the first Test of the trip – the clash against Ireland in Chicago – is probably unlikely at this point.

Test debutants this year in bold

* Not in current squad

^ Yet to make Test debut

1. Tamaiti Williams, Ethan de Groot, George Bower, Ollie Norris

2. Codie Taylor, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Brodie McAlister, Asafo Aumua (injured), George Bell

3. Tyrel Lomax (injured), Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, Tevita Mafileo^

4. Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i (injured), Fabian Holland, Patrick Tuipulotu

5. Vaa’i, Holland, Tuipulotu, Josh Lord, Sam Darry*

6. Simon Parker, Vaa’i, Wallace Sititi, Samipeni Finau

7. Ardie Savea, Du'Plessis Kirifi, Peter Lakai, Luke Jacobson

8. Sititi, Lakai, Savea, Jacobson, Christian Lio-Willie*

9. Cam Roigard, Cortez Ratima, Noath Hotham (injured), Kyle Preston, Finlay Christie

10. Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Ruben Love, Richie Mo'unga (returns next year)

11. Caleb Clarke, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Rieko Ioane, Leroy Carter

12. Jordie Barrett, Quinn Tupaea, Anton Lienert-Brown, Billy Proctor

13. Proctor, Tupaea, Ioane, Fainga'anuku, Lienert-Brown, Timoci Tavatavanawai (injured)

14. Carter, Emoni Narawa (injured), Sevu Reece, Will Jordan

15. Jordan, McKenzie, Love, B Barrett

Forwards: Williams, de Groot, Bower, Norris, Taylor, Taukei’aho, McAlister, Newell, Tosi, Mafileo, S Barrett, Holland, Tuipulotu, Lord, Parker, Sititi, Finau, Savea, Kirifi, Lakai.

Backs: Roigard, Ratima, Christie, B Barrett, McKenzie, Love, Clarke, Fainga’anuku, Ioane, Carter, J Barrett, Tupaea, Proctor, Lienert-Brown, Reece, Jordan.