Analysis: With one Rugby Championship round remaining, 1News rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry rake over the big issues for the All Blacks.
PM: Scotty, with one round of the Rugby Championship remaining, and before we touch on the Bledisloe re-match, let’s get ahead of ourselves – who has been your All Black player of the tournament and why?
SS: Well, that’s a big question straight out of the blocks! For me it’s Jordie Barrett. The All Blacks backline has struggled to find its rhythm this championship, but Barrett has been the most consistent performer within it. He has been asked to play tough and has never shirked his responsibility in that department.
His own stats tell a story: he led the team in carries against Australia, bringing his personal tournament tally to 46, eclipsed only by Ardie Savea. I bring up that name because I am sure there are plenty of others who would choose the openside flanker for this particular gong.
I choose Barrett instead because while Savea has conjured some seriously impressive moments so far, Barrett, by virtue of his central presence on both attack and defence (he claimed more than 100 run metres on the weekend and led the backline in tackles), feels indispensable.
Would love to read your take on this. Who stands out for you?
PM: I hear what you’re saying about Jordie and you’re dead right about the responsibility on his shoulders. It was instructive to watch him at Eden Park last weekend – he defended as a wing off the Wallabies’ lineouts to counter box kicks – not unusual maybe but he really is expected to do it all.
That he could find the space and touch in the 75th minute to palm off a defender and lay the ball on for Quinn Tupaea for Cam Roigard’s second try of the night was a testament to his resilience and creativity and he probably doesn’t get enough credit for the latter.
In saying that, I’m going for Ardie as you no doubt expected I would. And not just for his consistency, which is elite, but for what he brings to a team still finding its way: heart and soul.
What did you make of that team performance? Consistently inconsistent? Or something a bit more promising given what was at stake?
SS: There were green shoots at Eden Park, and what was most pleasing about the first 20 minutes was watching Beauden Barrett operate with the freedom that has eluded him so far this season.
Yes, Australia’s defence seemed awfully passive in the opening exchanges, but I think the elder Barrett deserves some credit for keeping the line guessing.
I offer that as a way into what I think is a point largely missed: Barrett was having one of those nights, and that lasted for just 27 minutes. This is not to detract from his replacement, Damian McKenzie, but I got the sense the starting 10 was on a heater and it was a shame we didn’t get to see him out there for longer, because the starting 15 felt energised early.
Despite showing a better grasp of their attacking shape, and finding more efficient ways to get their outsides into the match, the All Blacks still seem to get caught out too easily on transition defence.
I think their attack strategy takes a huge mental toll on the team, because of its intricacy and detail. It would seem to me that it takes a little longer than it should to refocus on the other side of the equation, and Australia took advantage of that.
One thing that can’t be taken away from this team is that they finished strongly. Under pressure, and with just two points to play with, they found a way (as you have described above) to engage fifth gear when it mattered most. That will be a huge confidence booster for them.
We could nitpick our way through the careless offensive penalties, and a maul defence that has gone from near impenetrable to patently perforated, but those are fixable issues. To find a complete performance this team is just going to have to keep plugging away.
One further point, Australia has been given a lot of credit for their improvement. If we all believe they are better, then why would anyone be surprised that they were well and truly in the contest?
PM: Interesting point you raise and it probably relates to 1. The All Blacks’ historic success and 2. The All Blacks’ second-half vulnerability under the new coaching regime.
If an All Blacks team of the 2010s-2020 had led Australia 20-3 with just over a quarter of the game gone at Eden Park, they would have almost certainly put them to the sword, but the margins are now far narrower in the international game and the Wallabies are far better, as you say.
In saying that, I’m still shocked by the All Blacks’ collapse in Wellington. It was a catastrophe which I believe hinted at cracks behind the scenes and it cannot be explained away by mere “small margins”. The All Blacks smoothed over those at Eden Park but that defensive vulnerability was still exploited in the second half by the Australians.
Will we see those fissures again this year? With all due respect to England at Twickenham and Wales in Cardiff, Ireland in Chicago and Scotland in Edinburgh appear the two nations most likely to expose them again.
You’ve written about the toll the attacking strategy takes on this team. I would love your take on whether you think there are deeper issues in the defensive and attacking alignment of the group.
SS: We have both expressed our thoughts this season about the alignment in the team. It’s clear that there has been a progression in learning, but that progression is happening at different rates for different players.
As said, it appeared as though Beauden Barrett had shaken off the concrete boots in that first-quarter performance, and that was certainly encouraging, because 10s have a huge responsibility to ignite attack and get a lot of touches.
Elsewhere, you can see players being rewarded and trusted for understanding the game plan.
Simon Parker has added to the loose forward trio because he will forever return good stats with little fanfare. Wallace Sititi will grow with minutes played. Roigard’s return unlocks space around the ruck, Jordie Barrett’s willingness to take on first receiver duties has upped the threat level. Tyrel Lomax and Fabian Holland have incredible soft skills with ball in hand.
When you start to see these plays click, it does give the impression that the conceptual side of the plan has been more widely accepted and understood. I think this selection team has reached a point at which they have decided to - where possible - pick a side based on understanding as much as talent.
All of which is a roundabout way of saying, I sense the trust is growing, and that’s despite the step backwards in Wellington which, as much as it was painful for All Blacks fans to watch, revealed a truth about modern Test match rugby: small percentages add up big differences across 80 minutes.
Australia got back in the fight at Eden Park on tiny lapses in focus. New Zealand won the game because they took advantage of Australia’s.
The Northern Tour will be a test of how deeply this team believes in what it is trying to do, but before that they have the green and gold foe in Perth, who are welcoming reinforcements. How much better do you think Australia can be?
PM: The returns of huge lock Will Skelton and ball-carrying loose forward Rob Valetini will help the Wallabies enormously and I wouldn’t be surprised if they resulted in a win for the home side in Perth.
If James O’Connor, or whoever plays No.10 for the Wallabies, operates with a bit more accuracy and plays the percentages then those big boys above could set a near irresistible platform for a very good backline which did not operate with freedom at Eden Park.
We all know the All Blacks haven’t yet won back-to-back Tests in this Rugby Championship, so this is a another huge Test of their character and resolve.
Final question from me, and I’m going to change tack here: Do you think the Bledisloe Cup format needs tweaking? Currently the Wallabies, who last held it in 2003, have to win home and away to get it back. Is that fair? Or am I being patronising towards them?
SS: I would love a three-Test series, but the current rules suit the holder, and even if self-interest were not a motivating factor, squeezing another Test in, or binning an American heist, might not be appealing for the players or the accountants.
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