Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt, a man with a unique insight into the All Blacks as a previous assistant and former head coach of Ireland, believes New Zealand will draw on their Eden Park record to be more “focused, connected and combative” on Saturday.
Schmidt, a former assistant to Ian Foster who finished with the All Blacks at the end of the 2023 World Cup, also said today that his former team were “on the cusp of breaking things open” despite their recent record defeat to the Springboks in Wellington.
There is no doubt the man who has rejuvenated Australian rugby over the past couple of years – the Wallabies are current leaders of the Rugby Championship with two rounds remaining – is wary of the All Blacks but it is clear too that he is excited about the opportunity and has confidence in his own men.
“I know a lot of people will focus on the end result last time [the All Blacks] played,” Schmidt said. "But, 60 minutes in, I was sitting watching with [assistants] Mike Cron and Tom Donnelly, two guys who spent time playing or coaching the All Blacks, and we’re all thinking the game is in the balance.
"Unfortunately, what can happen is if the game gets away from you a little bit, you can try too hard or you can take a risk you wouldn’t otherwise do. You can play outside the box and start to get a little too individual. South Africa did it to us – they just did it at the other end of the game.
"We couldn’t believe it – after 18 minutes at Ellis Park we were 22-0 down. We were wondering how to stop this green wave.
"I know how quickly they can damage you."
The difference for Schmidt and the Wallabies is that they came back to beat the Boks at Ellis Park.
The All Blacks, meanwhile, have enjoyed leads in all six of their defeats under Scott Robertson and were demolished by the South Africans at the Cake Tin.
In what is a strange twist and a hint at the Wallabies' own vulnerability, the Aussies have not been good starters this year.
"Personally, I’m sick of seeing us being behind and having to fight our way back," Schmidt said. "But I also have incredible admiration at how they can do that. Against the All Blacks you can’t afford to give them a head start."
The weight of history is against Schmidt and the Wallabies. Australia have not beaten New Zealand at Eden Park since 1986 and the All Blacks’ 51-Test unbeaten streak at their fortress is well known. Australia have also not held the Bledisloe Cup in 22 years.
But the Kiwi is also used to creating history. He was the man in charge when Ireland beat the All Blacks for the first time – in Chicago in 2016 – a victory which set in motion Ireland’s development into one of New Zealand’s biggest rugby rivals.
He was also the man in charge in 2013 when the All Blacks came from 22-7 down at halftime in Dublin to run out winners – helped by a converted Ryan Crotty try after the fulltime siren.
"I remember the third Test I ever coached… we led 19-0 after 19 minutes against the All Blacks," he said. "We led 22-7 at halftime. With time up on the clock we led by five points."
After going into explicit detail in explaining how the All Blacks scored that decisive try, Schmidt quipped: "The scars are not deep."
He added: "I just know what they can do and I know that DNA has not changed. I still see the same capability and the same people.
"They will have a real collective energy and to suppress that is going to be a real challenge."
Wallabies lock Nick Frost said of the All Blacks’ streak at Eden Park: "You’ve got to respect it. They’ve done unbelievably well at this ground for a number of years. But also it’s something you look forward to as well. As a player and a team, we’re really excited by the opportunity we have to play them at this ground."
Of the collapse against the Boks, Frost said: "They’re a proud rugby nation, for sure, so we expect a little bit of a kick back, definitely. I know that one would hurt them a lot - deeply."
James Slipper’s 150th Test for the Wallabies should provide a little extra motivation, with former Crusaders first-five James O’Connor getting the nod at No.10, despite flying to and from England to link with his Leicester club, another notable factor.
WALLABIES: 15. Max Jorgensen, 14. Harry Potter, 13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12. Len Ikitau, 11. Corey Toole, 10. James O'Connor, 9. Tate McDermott, 8. Harry Wilson (capt), 7. Fraser McReight, 6. Tom Hooper, 5. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4. Nick Frost, 3. Taniela Tupou, 2. Billy Pollard, 1. James Slipper.
Reserves: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Angus Bell, 18. Allan Alaalatoa, 19. Jeremy Williams, 20. Carlo Tizzano, 21. Ryan Lonergan, 22. Tane Edmed, 23. Filipo Daugunu.
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