Analysis: New Zealand's fortress will be tested by an Aussie team that has counterattacking threats across the park, write Scott Stevenson and Pat McKendry.
PM: Scotty, there will be All Blacks fans who will want to see metaphorical blood on the floor and wholesale changes to the team to play the Wallabies at Eden Park on Saturday after the Cake Tin catastrophe.
Codie Taylor and Cam Roigard are likely to come straight back in after being sidelined through injury… but are you expecting the selectors to go nuclear elsewhere?
SS: Well, I don't think that's going to solve what's really ailing this team, which is probably more the feeling that some of their own fans want blood on the floor!
Taylor and Roigard are absolutely starting this match, and I think we'll see Fabian Holland return to a starting role at lock as well. He strikes as a much better proposition there than as a finisher. Patrick Tuipulotu will make a strong case for locking cover on the pine.
I would still love to see Will Jordan start at fullback and play as much of a game there as possible. This does create another opportunity to rejig the back three, and centre is still one position that lacks a resounding pick-me option. It must be tempting to see if Leicester Fainga'anuku's brute force is worth a run, either on the wing or at 13.
Persist with the loose forwards. Wallace Sititi is still building minutes, and Simon Parker is a workhorse. Ardie Savea will do what he does and he's the guaranteed guy in his spot. Tamaiti Williams may be worth a shot to start up front.
What I would like to see is a faith-restoring masterclass from Beauden Barrett. What does he have to do to rediscover his mojo?
PM: Have a crack and trust his running game. I know this is something you’ve been wanting to see from him for weeks, but Beaudy’s kick-pass-run balance was not good against the Boks recently and he has to be more of a threat with the ball.
The space is there but for heaven’s sake don’t kick the ball away so much. This was touched on by assistant coach Jason Holland this week. Holland and the rest of the coaches will want to see the All Blacks build momentum by retaining the ball. I concur.
Fortunately, Roigard’s running threat at halfback for the first time in the Rugby Championship should free up Beaudy a little more.
As for potential changes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anton Lienert-Brown starting at centre and big Leicester coming off the bench in an impact role. Given this is a team struggling so much under the high ball, Jordan is an absolute must to return to fullback.
That second-half collapse against the Boks was unprecedented and shocked a lot of former All Blacks. Will there be psychological damage that the Wallabies can exploit at Eden Park?
SS: That’s the big question, isn’t it? I think the implosion showed there is an unwelcome vulnerability in this team, and that vulnerability was exploited by a Springboks team that had a superior game plan, and the individual confidence to execute. I am writing from the point of view of an outsider looking in, but staring through that window does not reveal a party atmosphere.
Confidence begets confidence but from where does this team draw it from? It can’t be much fun finding themselves on the boom-bust cycle (not that they are alone in that in this Rugby Championship) and more crucially, is anyone in that team demonstrating a true mastery of the gameplan? In fits and starts, maybe, but the evidence is more anecdotal than concrete.
All of which is a long-winded way of saying the Wallabies, with a fast start, are more than capable of sewing some fresh seeds of doubt. Doubt compounds pressure, pressure further erodes confidence.
Joe Schmidt is not one for engaging in the kinds of public jousts that others of his vintage seemed to revel in, but behind the scenes he will have been sticking pins in the the All Blacks’ voodoo doll, and exhorting his team to be the biggest pests they can be.
That said, surely the Wallabies have more demons at Eden Park. Right, Pat?
PM: Well, yes, they haven’t beaten New Zealand there since 1986. They also have proven to be fairly slow starters (albeit fast finishers) in this Rugby Championship – the polar opposite of the All Blacks.
It’s an intriguing match up in other ways too because this Wallabies backline is sensational on its day. Max Jorgensen, Hunter Paisami, Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, Tom Wright et al are excitement machines and are playing with a cohesion that leaves their All Blacks’ counterparts in their wake.
Will they have the grit up front to match the All Blacks? Possibly not without the injured loose forward Rob Valetini and monster lock Will Skelton, who is unavailable but may make it back from Europe to play in Perth the following week.
It shouldn’t take a humiliation for an All Black forward to get in the right frame of mind for a Test match but I’m in no doubt that forwards coach Jason Ryan has pushed a few buttons this week. It could make for an explosive opening quarter.
As you say, Schmidt will have the Wallabies well prepared. Where exactly do you think they could hurt the All Blacks?
SS: Counterattack, for one. This is something that All Blacks teams prided themselves on, and still should, but the Australians have grown extra legs on click-plays and New Zealand’s transition defence – often tested – was blown apart last up by South Africa. Australia would have noted that and will attempt to double down.
I also think the breakdown is going to be ground zero. Good Australian teams target the ruck and are renowned scrappers for possession. New Zealand are not the jackling team they once were, but the Wallabies are honing their craft here. Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight are an excellent one-two punch in that respect. And Nic White loves a snipe, too. Both teams will want lightning quick ball. Whichever gets it, goes a long way to winning.
As you rightly mentioned, control down the stretch is another angle to pursue. What a story James O'Connor has been, and his eye for space and opportunity needs to be guarded.
Skelton and Valetini are big losses, as you mention, but still expect a very organised and disruptive lineout from the visitors, too.
Lay it down, then, Pat. How do you sense this match unfolding with the long lens on?
PM: I just feel the All Blacks will be better balanced in terms of selections this week and too strong overall, although they will have to overcome some difficulties.
Their scrum should give them a far better platform and that should allow them to test the Aussies defensively. The earlier 5.05pm kick-off time may aid them in this and I suspect both sides will seek to take advantage of what are likely to be better conditions.
You are right to mention the Aussies’ counterattack, though – they are deadly there this year and defensively the All Blacks will have to ensure they keep their width far better than at the Cake Tin.
This is a huge game for so many reasons.
It comes after one of the game’s darkest weeks for the sport here following the Boks’ disaster and the Black Ferns’ World Cup semifinal defeat and the All Blacks must respond. On balance, I think they probably will but your mention of their rivals’ effectiveness at the breakdown gives me pause.
No, I’m going for the All Blacks to win a close one.
You?
SS: As usual, sound reasoning from you. The All Blacks need to fight their way out of what has become a persistent darkness. No better time to do that in spring daylight. No better place to do it than at their fortress.
I expect them to be better in general, and to show the sort of tactical composure that brings out the best of their constituent parts. A wantonly disrespectful evisceration of the Wallabies may be too much to ask of this team right now, but a win is bottom line.
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