Analysis: Welcome back to New York, Mr Peters.
The country you visit this week is remarkably different to the one you visited last time we met.
Leaders week at the United Nations is often a bit of a yawn-fest – a whole lot of politicking, yes, but ultimately the decision making made in that glass-covered 1940s building on 1st Ave feels like it has little impact on the lives on the people it says it represents.
This year, however, feels very different – and the officials who work behind the scenes tell me they feel that way too.
The laundry list of issues the world is facing seems to be getting ever longer. The Russia-Ukraine war grinds on. Climate change (remember that?) continues to wreak havoc on many nations across the globe – especially in the Pacific, our backyard.
And the big question – what to do about the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East – seems to be just as sticky and difficult as it’s always been, even if the stakes are higher than ever, with millions of people living in famine. Israel itself has been accused of committing genocide against the Palestinian people (which it denies). A two-state solution, which New Zealand has long supported, seems almost like a pipe dream, despite sessions scheduled this week at the UN to try and carve a path to making it a reality.
Of course, all of this is happening as the traditional 'leader of the free world' blows up traditional diplomatic relations with... well... everyone.
The world is feeling very on edge now, and it’s hard not to get that sense just wandering around the perimeter of the UN precinct. Security is always tight as these things – but this feels like an extra step up.
Large protests are expected to coincide with the (again, expected – everything is subject to change) appearances of US President Donald Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom will address the general assembly. The President of the Palestinian Authority will speak over video as the US revoked his visa. Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters is due to speak later in the week.
One of the big 'things' this week is that several major countries have gone into it acknowledging Palestinian Statehood. Ultimately, it’s a legal distinction, but one with far-reaching consequences – and a line in the sand that Israel and America is furious about.
On the eve of appearances at the UN, the leaders of Britain, Canada, Australia, and Portugal announced their countries recognised Palestine as a state (there are three criteria to meet: a permanent population, a defined territory, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states).
New Zealand has taken an approach that has been described to me by an expert as ‘odd’, effectively conducting a 'will they, won’t they' dance.
On TVNZ’s Breakfast, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said a decision would be made by Cabinet later this week – which I’m safely assuming will come before Peters' address to the UN.
It would be very awkward if it didn’t.
International relations expert Alexander Gillespie said the statehood question has its challenges.
Christopher Luxon appeared on Breakfast amid a new survey which found investor confidence at its lowest since mid-2020. (Source: Breakfast)
"Politically, it's difficult as you have the obvious problem that Israel will not cooperate with any such bilateral understandings – such as (just the initial problems) allowing the five million-plus refugees to return home, giving up their illegal annexations of Palestinian territory, or accepting that they have the right to have armed forces," he told me.
Practically, there was also an issue of if a future Palestine State wanted admission to the UN, that would need the approval of the UN Security Council – which the US would likely veto.
"Ethically, it is very hard as although there is a difference in scale and types of atrocities, neither side has 'clean hands' as both have done terrible things to the other. But it must be acknowledged that the scale and gravity of the crimes is increasing,” Gillespie said.
"This increase – especially around the horrendous issues of genocide, ethnic cleansing and starvation unfolding – means that nations are seeking a new pathway via the recognition of Palestine, as clearly the existing nearly eight-decade process since 1947 has failed.
"Historically, all of these recognitions are of great significance. These represent a fork in the road, from which different approaches to these difficult questions will unfold. It is not so much that the recognition pathway will work, as much as nearly eight decades of the traditional approach has failed."
As for the New Zealand Foreign Minister’s agenda, things always change at these kinds of events, but he is expected to attend several meetings discussing the future of Gaza, as well as meetings on the Russia-Ukraine war and climate change – especially as other Pacific leaders will be present.
So, again, welcome back to New York, Mr Peters.
The world feels very different from last time you were here.
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