Analysis: 1News rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss where the first Test was won and how the All Blacks could attack the second Test in Wellington.
PM: Scotty, after a monumental Test at Eden Park last weekend and before we turn our attention to the All Blacks, who got the win they craved, let’s start with the Boks, who have made seven changes for Wellington.
Most probably suspected that Rassie Erasmus would make changes, but dropping veteran lock Eben Etzebeth, No.10 Handre Pollard and fullback Willie le Roux is certainly making a statement.
Is this an attempt from the head coach to find a little more creativity to go with the team’s renowned brute force?
SS: It was a great Test, Pat, at least in terms of intensity, and there were moments when the All Blacks’ pace and intent had the Boks breathing heavily.
The All Blacks were the more adventurous of the two sides – box kicks aside – and I think it was a case of fortune favouring the brave. Erasmus went for a more traditional approach and came off second best. The changes he has made suggest he is searching for a bit more spark for sure.
The Boks will never stray too far from what works for them. The power of the pack in the closing stages of the match was proof positive that the team in green is still one that falls back on strong-arm tactics when their backs are against the wall.
If you look at the Test season to date, the Springboks have already used almost 50 players so it is not surprising that more changes have been made.
I’m not as surprised as you that Etzebeth has been rotated out, which I believe is a more accurate choice of phrase than "dropped". He has been such a warrior for that team and I think he will be carefully managed now to give him the best chance of making the next World Cup.
As Erasmus stated, he is looking for a bit more "spark" in the backline, but it is a brave call to switch six. It could be a torrid night for Damian Willemse and Canan Moodie in the midfield, given Barrett and Proctor will feel right at home, and for all Fassi’s pace, Wellington can be a graveyard for fullbacks.
Can we get a bit deep here? Do you think we place far too much emphasis on head coaches when it comes to our collective coverage of the Test game?
PM: Probably, yes, but that’s what they sign up for. Apart from the skipper, head coaches are the figurehead of their teams. They set the narrative through their media interviews before and after Tests, and there are few better than Rassie at setting storylines, although in recent years he has backed away from his overt criticism of referees – no bad thing.
In saying that, it was quite clear to me that the All Blacks’ coaching team as a collective out-thought their counterparts (which included renowned rugby brain Tony Brown), and virtually all the credit for those two outstanding tries from first-phase strikes at Eden Park must go to new lineout assistant Bryn Evans and backs assistant Jason Holland.
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The first one, where the All Blacks’ shaped to go narrow and through the midfield (the obvious choice for a first attack of a Test), only for Beauden Barrett to send that superb kick-pass to Emoni Narawa, was outstanding. Shaping defences is a big part of the game at the top level and the South Africans were not in the same league in this department.
Those two seven-pointers laid the foundation for the All Blacks’ win because straight away the Boks were under scoreboard pressure.
You clearly have thoughts here as far as coaches go and I’d like to hear them. I’d also like to hear what you’re expecting to see in terms of team selection tomorrow beyond injury-forced changes to hooker and right wing for the All Blacks.
SS: All valid points on the role of the head coach. I guess the nature of the news cycle and the wider media ecosystem in these times tends to exaggerate the ‘personalities’ (hat tip to Martin Amis here) in charge of teams. I guess it's entertaining enough at times, but most of that entertainment is found between the lines.
That aside, I really enjoyed those strike plays, as you rightly pointed out. The Narawa try (not Le Roux’s finest defensive effort) was indeed beautifully executed. I was slightly surprised that the All Blacks didn’t look to use that cross kick a little more in the match given there seemed to be a lot of positional indecision within the Boks’ back three.
Shaping that defence – either forcing a player back or dragging them into the line – has been a focus for this team, as has ensuring the pivots are live options at all times in phase play, something Beauden Barrett in particular seems to have struggled with in recent weeks. There were good signs that he is shaking an annoyingly habitual pass and fade that has crept into his game.
As for the All Blacks team for this week, I wouldn’t change much. Samisoni Taukei'aho is a straight swap for Codie Taylor in my estimation, and they may look to tinker with the front row in terms of starters v bench. That tighthead late in the game that led to Malcolm Marx’s try stung Jason Ryan. I loved his line: “That’s a never again moment.”
Surely that back row gets another crack after their effort at Eden Park, and the three locks remain as is for me as well.
Noah Hotham’s return adds interest at halfback, but you have to hand it to Finlay Christie. For a guy who was out of the reckoning at the start of the season, he has put in some terrific shifts upon return to the squad. It’s that wing spot that truly intrigues.
Will Jordan switched there when Narawa exited the match, and Damian McKenzie was low key excellent at the back when entering the game early. They could keep that set up in place to start, but I think they are itching to get Caleb Clarke into the mix again.
Do you think they may pull the trigger more? And where do we differ here on our selection theories?
PM: I can’t fault your logic around potential selection crunch areas. I agree, the All Blacks may tinker with the front row beyond starting Taukei’aho, but probably not the rest of the pack. Those loose forwards Simon Parker, Wallace Sititi and the incomparable Ardie Savea were very good, and lock Tupou Vaa’i was superb alongside skipper Scott Barrett.
It indeed looks like Hotham is back in the mix following his ankle injury. Would Razor and Company start Hotham in a bid to manage his game time? Not sure, as Christie has been very good, especially on defence, and appears better suited to a starting role than the Crusaders man. I wouldn’t count Kyle Preston out, either, in terms of a bench role.
Clarke appears set to come in on the opposite wing to Rieko Ioane, which would move Jordan back to fullback and McKenzie to the bench. I feel the bench has better shape with McKenzie on it and his potential impact against a tiring Boks defence could be a game changer.
Meanwhile, I feel Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor could be licking their proverbial lips at the thought of facing a 10, 12 and 13 combination of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Willemse and Moodie. That Boks trio has more attacking “spark”, but potentially less defensive grit than a Pollard, Damian de Allende, Jesse Kriel combo.
More broadly, the All Blacks held their fortress last weekend and must now get to the same level or better at the Cake Tin, a place where they haven’t been overly convincing recently.
What are the keys to victory? Do you feel they have a few more tricks up their sleeve? Will they need them?
SS: Simply: more of the same but another step up in accuracy. I know the scoreline doesn’t reflect it, but I think the Boks were overwhelmed at times in that first Test, and I fully expect the All Blacks to take another big stride forward in Wellington.
I can’t be sure, but I certainly would not be surprised to see a tactical shift from the men in black, including a bit more faith in phase play to get the best out of both Barretts with ball in hand. As I mentioned earlier, there are a couple of gremlins in the game that the elder Barrett is working out of his system, and if Jordan does revert to fullback, that phase attack suddenly carries serious optional threats.
How do you see things unfolding from a game plan point of view?
PM: A little less kicking from both teams would be nice. I know that’s the game but it shouldn’t be the default option. As I hinted at, I feel the All Blacks will attempt to get the ball slightly wider and go at the Boks’ midfield on Saturday. If successful, that will open up space elsewhere, and on it goes… Look out for a few more lineout variations, too.
I find it interesting that Richie McCaw is in camp with the team this week. They need his relentlessness and obsession with improvement this week.
I’ll leave you with the last word, but I’m keen to hear how you feel the great man could inspire this team and how you think the game will go in general? Personally, I think the Boks will respond well in adversity, but I’m still not sure about their attack.
SS: A battle, Pat. As these games are and should be.
I do think the continuity of selection for the All Blacks gives them an advantage. They will already know who is playing this weekend and will be fully focused on fine tuning. I expect them to pull away in the second half, and to win again.
As for McCaw being in camp. Well, what a mind to lean on for the fellas. He’s the personification of relentlessness, isn’t he? That’s a quality this team wants to be known for.
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