After seeing their team perform closer to their potential in the comprehensive win over France in the second Test, the All Blacks’ coaches this week face a balancing act of maintaining improving cohesion while giving other players opportunities.
It could be tempting to go for wholesale changes – much as France coach Fabian Galthie did to his team in Wellington, to their detriment, in the short term at least, after the visitors pushed the All Blacks all the way in the first Test.
Tupou Vaa’i, the converted lock who has thrived in the relatively unfamiliar position of blindside flanker, is almost certainly out of next Saturday’s Test at Waikato Stadium after failing a head injury assessment, but was probably due a break anyway, with Samipeni Finau likely to replace him.
Indeed, Finau and his Chiefs teammates may be the big selection winners on their home turf for the third and final Test.
If Scott Robertson and company want to freshen up their front row, hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho and Ollie Norris, the latter making his Test debut off the bench in Dunedin and entered last night’s game at the Cake Tin as an impact player, will be in the frame.
So will loose forward Luke Jacobson, back after a head injury of his own suffered during the Super Rugby Pacific final, and midfielder Anton Lienert-Brown, who has had the last couple of months off due to a broken collarbone.
Another Chiefs player, Emoni Narawa, is likely to retain his place on the right wing after performing well there as a late replacement during the week following Caleb Clarke’s ankle sprain in training, and local favourites Cortez Ratima and Damian McKenzie may form the starting inside back combination.
Chiefs hooker Brodie McAlister, not required for the first two Tests, will probably make his debut off the bench should the selectors elect to rest Codie Taylor, which is likely.
“We’ve got a few guys chomping at the bit to get an opportunity and have been helping set the XV up really well for the last couple of weeks,” assistant coach Jason Holland said as the team prepared to fly out of Wellington this morning.
“There’s some high energy from some boys dying to have a crack.
“The general mindset was for everybody to get a taste of Test footy over the three games. There’s nothing that’s changed there.”
Of last night’s performance, Holland said: “We still felt that in the last 20 minutes we could have finished better than we did and really put them away.”
But that did not mean there would be any lessening of expectations should the selectors ring the changes for what is a dead rubber – albeit one they are obviously determined to win for a series sweep.
“There will be no lack of motivation to keep getting better and I’m sure the lads will add when they get the opportunity,” he said.
The All Blacks’ outside backs stocks, already low, have not been helped by Sevu Reece’s head injury and Clarke’s ankle problem.
Depending on whether Reece comes right this week, Rieko Ioane could start again on the left wing, with Ruben Love a possibility to replace Will Jordan at fullback.
Holland confirmed the coaches primarily see Love as a fullback who can play first-five, with Jordan, who scored his 41st try in 43 Tests last night, probably due for a rest as is, potentially, Jordie Barrett, who has returned from his sabbatical in Ireland without missing a beat.
Scott Barrett’s season-ending calf tear means Ardie Savea will likely captain the team again, and in Jacobson and lock Patrick Tuipulotu, who both lead their Super Rugby teams, there is enough leadership there without the need to play vice-captain Jordie again.
Back-up halfback Noah Hotham is a good chance to win a place on the bench, should the selectors elect to rest Cam Roigard, which is also likely.
It is likely, too, that Timoci Tavatavanawai, who enjoyed an emotional Test debut off the bench at the Cake Tin, will play some role next Saturday, either as a starter or an impact player, as the All Blacks continue to refine the power game they will hope troubles South Africa over two Tests in September.
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