The weather forecast of showers and strong northerlies for Wellington on Saturday night will not dissuade the All Blacks from playing with the pace and ambition they attempted with some success against France in the first Test.
For them, and head coach Scott Robertson, very little changes and they will keep pursuing a game plan based on fast feet and even faster thinking.
They will feel they had the French on the ropes under the roof in Dunedin, only for the tourists to slide out of harm’s way thanks to small errors, three of which were picked up by the forensic attention of television match official Damon Murphy.
And that is the reason for Robertson’s consistency of selection for the Cake Tin. The chances of achieving the accuracy and cohesion the All Blacks are after as they seek to wrap up the series before the third Test would be lower had he and his fellow selectors decided on bigger changes.
But should the All Blacks win back the Dave Gallaher Trophy on Saturday for the first time since 2018, more changes are likely in Hamilton a week later.
Two of the three changes are forced – Patrick Tuipulotu in as a straight swap for injured skipper Scott Barrett, and Caleb Clarke in (on the left wing) for injured right wing Sevu Reece. The increasingly versatile Rieko Ioane shifts to the right to make way for Clarke.
That is a huge vote of confidence in lock Fabian Holland, who retains his place after an excellent debut last weekend, and Tupou Vaa’i, who scored a try after starting in the relatively unfamiliar position of blindside flanker.
Tuipulotu said of Holland today: “It was an awesome debut for the big man. He does a lot of work – he’s very fit and mobile and is not afraid of the tough stuff.”
So the 22-year-old retains his place, as does Vaa’i and centre Billy Proctor, who had a mixed time of it in his third Test (and first at home), but who deserves to have another opportunity to prove his undoubted quality as a defender and distributor.
That the biggest surprise, if we can call it that, is Timoci Tavatavanawai’s place on the bench in place of fellow back-up midfielder Quinn Tupaea. It highlights how happy overall the coaches were with the performance last weekend but also their selection logic.
Continuity, time and combinations were Robertson’s buzz words today as he explained his selections, along with his determination to stick to the plan of playing at pace.
“We’ve got the players to do it right across the park… we’ll keep creating,” he said. “Like I said the other day, if the southerly comes in off the Cook Strait we’ll adapt and play into the wind and rain as well but our intention is to use our skills as much as we can.”
Robertson said he was fortunate he had the luxury of picking Blues skipper Tuipulotu, a man with 51 Tests behind him who will provide valuable support for Ardie Savea, Barrett’s replacement as captain.
“He’s a good lineout caller and is physical,” Robertson said of Tuipulotu. “He’s got beautiful mana about him and a calmness. We’re pleased we can bring someone like him in. He’s in form and his body is in good nick.”
What does he want to see from potential debutant Tavatavanawai, a man who will likely replace Jordie Barrett in the second half should everything go to plan?
“His ability to have an impact with and without the ball,” Robertson replied. “He’s been great in our environment and it’s a great opportunity this week.”
The All Blacks made 13 line breaks last weekend, scoring from three of them.
Improving that strike rate is clearly a priority in what will be more difficult conditions likely featuring a similar aerial battle, which the French edged in Dunedin, and likely a lot more mauling from the visitors, who were awarded only a handful of lineouts in the south.
However, Robertson, in a pointed reminder about the dangers of writing any France team off, added: “I think the narrative has changed around what type of team they’ve brought.”
All Blacks match-day 23 (Test caps in brackets; * denotes debutant)
1. Ethan de Groot (30), 2. Codie Taylor (97) (vice-captain), 3. Fletcher Newell (23), 4. Patrick Tuipulotu (51), 5. Fabian Holland (1), 6. Tupou Vaa’i (39), 7. Ardie Savea (95) (captain), 8. Christian Lio-Willie (1), 9. Cam Roigard (11), 10. Beauden Barrett (135), 11. Caleb Clarke (29), 12. Jordie Barrett (69) (vice-captain), 13. Billy Proctor (3), 14. Rieko Ioane (82), 15. Will Jordan (42).
Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho (31), 17. Ollie Norris (1), 18. Pasilio Tosi (8), 19. Samipeni Finau (9), 20. Du’Plessis Kirifi (1), 21. Cortez Ratima (12), 22. Timoci Tavatavanawai *, 23. Damian McKenzie (62).
Unavailable due to injury: Tamaiti Williams (knee); Tyrel Lomax (calf); Wallace Sititi (ankle); Luke Jacobson (concussion); Sevu Reece (concussion); Scott Barrett (calf).
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