Analysis: Moana Pasifika won the plaudits for their big win over their rivals, but the defending champs again contributed to their demise, writes Patrick McKendry.
Moana Pasifika’s stunning win over their cross-town rivals at the weekend, their fourth New Zealand scalp of the season, has overshadowed just how poor the defending champion Blues were at North Harbour Stadium and they now have only one more chance to make the playoffs.
They can only sit and watch this weekend as they have a bye week. Their break is unlikely to be restful.
The theme for their first bye of the season at the end of March was “re-set” after early-season losses to the Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs again, and Crusaders – their only win coming against the Hurricanes.
But, with only a home match to come against the Waratahs, and their city rivals, equal on competition points but just above them in sixth place on the table, having opportunities against the Chiefs and Hurricanes to extend their lead, the theme may be more along the lines of “switch the machine off and on again”.
Vern Cotter’s men, who stormed to a championship last season by bashing through virtually every door in their path, now have now come full circle. In a stunning reversal, they are on the brink of being locked out of the competition.
Their pack has consistently been bettered by New Zealand teams – and even the Reds recently – and, while Patrick Tuipulotu and Hoskins Sotutu stood up against Moana Pasifika, fellow experienced players Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane did not.
That may have been another consequence of the pack’s inability to get on the front foot, but, regardless, Barrett, often found defending in the back field at North Harbour Stadium, is not controlling games as he used to and Ioane simply is not getting the ball in his hands enough.
Even if they change the internal narrative around their pack by fronting up against the Waratahs, they are unlikely to change the external one – that they are effectively “flat-track bullies”, a pack that goes well when everything is in its favour – in time for the playoffs.
Given the success of the narrowness and pragmatism of their play last year, questions were raised in February about whether the Blues had a "Plan B" if such tactics didn't work this time around. Evidence suggests they did not.
Any doubts that All Blacks’ supporters in Taranaki may have had about Scott Barrett retaining the captaincy given Ardie Savea’s inspirational form at Moana Pasifika, or Beauden’s place in the squad given his on-field quietness, will presumably vanish once they discover the venue for the announcement of Scott Robertson’s first All Blacks’ squad of the season on June 23 – the Coastal Rugby Club, a 45-minute drive from New Plymouth.
That is presumably in recognition of what the Beauden, Scott and Jordie – and dad Kevin – have given to the New Zealand game over the years, but it is difficult to escape the feeling that Beauden is playing with something on his mind.
More worryingly for the Blues, Moana Pasifika had the greater hunger at the weekend. They also had individuals such as loose forwards Savea, Miracle Fai’lagi and wing Kyren Taumoefolau playing to their full potential within a collective greater than the sum of its parts.
Even if Moana Pasifika fail to make the playoffs – and they will be underdogs in their two remaining regular season matches in Hamilton and Wellington – they will be viewed as the competition’s over-achievers this year.
If the Blues do make the playoffs by beating a Waratahs side with little to play for, their next hurdle is likely a quarter-final against the Chiefs at Waikato Stadium.
Should Cotter’s men fall they will again be seen as the competition's under-achievers and the fact that many will see this as a return to type should hurt the franchise even more.
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