It was the comeback no one saw coming at the beginning of this year.
Labor, led by Anthony Albanese, didn’t just hold on to power in Australia’s federal election, they surged ahead — snatching seats off the Greens, routing the Liberals and securing a majority stronger than any seen in nearly two decades.
It marked the first time since federation in 1901 that a Labor prime minister has increased their majority at re-election.
A win of this scale is rare. A win of that tone, in today’s political climate, is rarer still.
Because this wasn't a win powered by fear or division. It was a rebuke of it.
And if New Zealand’s major parties — both in government and opposition — aren’t paying attention, they should be. If they aren’t, they could be walking towards their own political reckoning.
It's been a tight race between current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and challenger Peter Dutton. (Source: 1News)
A rejection of Trump-style politics
Throughout the campaign, Albanese and his senior ministers made one thing clear: Australia doesn’t want to go the way of Donald Trump. Penny Wong said it plain and clear in her speech, where I was on election night: "We choose our future. We don’t copy others."
At the beginning of the year, Albanese was trailing now-former opposition leader Peter Dutton in the polls. But the tone of the campaign changed as Dutton faced growing criticism over a series of policy backflips and cultural positions that drew comparisons to the US president — despite his campaign pushing back on the label.
Dutton proposed cutting back public service jobs, cracking down on working from home, and made controversial comments about women — moves that voters and analysts said echoed Trump-era politics.
He tried to present himself as strong on international affairs, even claiming he was better positioned than Albanese to stand up to Donald Trump over new tariffs, but the strategy backfired.
When asked about Dutton, Trump replied: "I don’t even know who the other guy is."
Rather than projecting strength, the exchange highlighted Dutton’s limited influence.
Little wonder some voters were questioning whether the Liberal Party had drifted too far from the political centre.
In April, he was even introduced on stage with the phrase, "we’ll make Australia great again", by one of his own MPs.
The result was a decisive loss, capped by the unprecedented defeat of Dutton in his own electorate.
From sausage stalls to surprise endorsements, Aziz Al Saafin reports on all you need to know as Aussies vote. (Source: 1News)
He was hoping to make history as the first opposition leader to unseat a first-term government in 100 years. Instead, he became the first opposition leader to lose his seat at a federal election.
Across the Tasman, Winston Peters has fuelled a so-called "gender debate" that inflamed division.
ACT's Treaty Principles Bill, was seen by some as a direct challenge to Māori rights and the status of Te Tiriti, provoking significant backlash. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and National voted against it at first reading, while distancing themselves from the bill — but only after allowing it to progress as part of the coalition agreement.
Political analysts agreed allowing the bill to be introduced came at a cost. While Luxon may not have backed the bill himself, his alignment with the parties pushing it drew inevitable criticism.
Kiwis I have spoken to — not just in New Zealand but here in Australia — said it sent a message (intentional or not) that extreme views still had a seat at the table.
And that's the real lesson from Australia: When you amplify voices that divide, even from the sidelines, voters don’t just notice. They respond.
As voters across the ditch and recently in Canada have shown, they’re tired of leaders who amplify anger instead of offering answers to everyday struggles such as the cost of living.
Lessons from Labor to Labour
On election night, I spotted a familiar face in the crowd at Albanese HQ and made my way over. Watching Australian Labor's victory up close was none other than Kieran McAnulty, New Zealand Labour’s campaign chairperson.
He wasn’t just there to cheer; he was there to learn.
"You’ve got to give people something to vote for, not just something to vote against," he told me, summing up what he sees as one of the Australian Labor Party’s key strengths.
"That was one of the big lessons here, they were clear about what they stood for."
McAnulty has also spent time in the UK observing how centre-left movements rebuild after defeat.
But his presence in Australia, shoulder-to-shoulder with the architects of Labor’s success, signalled where his focus lay: Vision, values, and offering voters a story they can be part of.
"People want to feel like they're included in a bigger plan. And what Labor did here, they gave people a reason to hope again."
Still, New Zealand Labour has its own major challenges to overcome.
Former prime minister Chris Hipkins struggled to inspire voters during the last election campaign, and the party’s support among Māori and younger voters was deeply dented.
But unlike Dutton, Hipkins has a second chance.
"We’re not pretending we’ve got it all figured out. But if there’s one thing we’ve taken from here, it’s that you have to listen and show up. We’ve got to earn that trust back," McAnulty told me.
That principle applied to every party in New Zealand, not just Labour or National.
The reality is that when politics becomes a game of blame, voters walk away.
We’ve seen that in New Zealand’s lower voter turnout at the last election where voting was not compulsory — unlike Australia.
A move away from the majors
While Labor’s win was emphatic, there has also been a general move towards Australia’s independents.
The growing bloc of independents, including the so-called "teal" candidates, made their presence felt.
Their appeal lay in offering an alternative to the binary red-versus-blue approach. And that’s something both Labour and National in New Zealand would be wise to reflect on.
The road to 2026
So, what about New Zealand? Our next general election is expected in October 2026, a little more than a year away. That might seem like a long time but, in politics, it’s a short runway.
Especially when it comes to resetting the tone.
The National-led coalition could risk looking like Dutton’s and less like Luxon’s original pitch of getting New Zealand "Back On Track" with a steady hand on the economy.
Ironically, that was also a slogan used by the now-ousted Liberal leader.
In politics, it’s often said that comebacks happen when leaders offer hope, not division.
This weekend, Australia reminded us that when parties reconnect with people’s values and focus on the issues that are front and centre — the cost of living, housing affordability and universal healthcare — voters respond at the ballot box.
SHARE ME