Analysis: The defending champion Blues are last after two rounds. Is a Crusaders-type collapse on the cards? Probably not, writes Patrick McKendry.
After two rounds of Super Rugby Pacific, the defending champion Blues, who lost two games in total last year, are 11th of 11 teams — with zero competition points.
As midfielder Rieko Ioane — a man like many of his teammates yet to find anything near his top form in 2025 — said yesterday, the competition is not won in February But there are signs that Vern Cotter’s famously simple and direct messages are failing to get through and another defeat on Saturday to the Hurricanes should prompt soul-searching.
If the 10 games played over the opening two weekends have shown anything, it's that this competition is brilliantly unpredictable and perhaps as close as it has ever been.
Every team in round one fought back from a scoreboard deficit to win, and round two was similarly spectacular, with the Blues’ 21 points scored in their 29-21 defeat to the Highlanders in Dunedin being the lowest total of the weekend.
After letting slip a lead against the Chiefs at Eden Park a week earlier in showery conditions that should have suited their big pack, the Blues contrived to throw it away in what, for Cotter, will be even more alarming ways.
The Blues had a 14-0 lead after 24 minutes under the roof thanks to tries from Finlay Christie and Beauden Barrett, but that was whittled down to 13-14 at halftime and the Highlanders finished over the top of the visitors despite playing with 13 men at one point in the second half.
It was an extraordinary meltdown.
It may be tempting to predict a Crusaders’ like collapse for the Blues – the red and blacks headed into last season on a seven-year championship streak but won only four games and didn’t feature in the playoffs – but that’s unlikely to transpire in Auckland given the standard of Cotter’s men in important positions.
Crusaders coach Rob Penney failed to find a quality No.10 following Richie Mo’unga’s move to Japan and Fergus Burke’s departure to the United Kingdom and his side suffered as a result. Penney and the Crusaders were also hit hard by a near constant injury toll.
The Blues, on the other hand, have the luxury of being able to start Harry Plummer, who led them to a title last year, at No.10, with fullback Barrett another option at first-five.
That is a double-edged sword because a number of All Blacks through the spine of the Blues – skipper Patrick Tuipulotu, flanker Dalton Papali’i, halfback Finlay Christie, Plummer, Ioane, Caleb Clark, Mark Telea, and Barrett – have failed to step up in tough second-half moments so far, should worry Cotter.
How, for instance, could they not make their advantage in Dunedin count, when they had two extra forwards?
It came down to decision making, and that has long been a problem at the Blues. Tuipulotu said yesterday he took responsibility for that, saying he should have opted for scrums at penalties rather than lineouts due to the two-man overlap created by the former.
“It’s pretty obvious that we haven’t played to the standard that we know we’re capable of,” Ioane said.
“A big part of it has come down to our intensity in games, really. Both the teams, the Chiefs and the Highlanders, wanted it more than us. It’s been our Achilles this year – our discipline.
“We’re giving away penalties and easy access into our half. And teams like the Chiefs and Highlanders will make you pay.
“During games, our intent and our attitude has been questioned which should never be the case. That’s disappointing.
“Even though I’m saying these things, don’t get me wrong, the confidence and belief is still high. We know the comp isn’t won in February.”
Even so, the table-topping Chiefs, with nine competition points, should already have overtaken the Blues as favourites to win this year and add to the first titles they won in 2012 and 2013.
The way Clayton McMillan’s men dismantled the Crusaders in Hamilton at the weekend (after McMillan made seven changes) proves they have the depth and adaptability to win in more than one way.
A week earlier, they out-muscled the Blues. Last Saturday, their backs cut the Crusaders to pieces with a 29-point blitz.
It’s still early, yes, but the Blues need a result in Wellington this Saturday for their own peace of mind along with a first step towards an increasingly arduous-looking challenge of qualifying for a home semifinal.
SHARE ME