A former NZ trade minister and Ambassador to Washington says US President Donald Trump's power will increasingly be checked by the wider political system.
Tim Groser was a long-serving trade minister in the Key government, and then spent several years as New Zealand's US Ambassador, including during Trump's first term.
He told Q+A the early flurry of tariffs and trade warfare from the White House was significant and ominous, but may not last.
"I think we're at 'peak Trump' right now, in which he feels — after this incredible comeback, but was far from a landslide victory — I think he feels invincible, and the reality checks will get imposed on him," said Groser.
Having previously announced 25% tariffs on a range of imports from Canada and Mexico, Trump then postponed them by a month after agreeing to political terms with rival leaders.
Groser said he thought a combination of internal political lobbying and the threat of retaliation would have stayed Trump's hand.
Former Trade Minister and US Ambassador Tim Groser discusses the vigorous start to the second Donald Trump presidency and how long the big, bold moves can last. (Source: Q and A)
"When he announced this incredible 25% on Canada and Mexico, General Motors and Ford are saying, 'You do realise, Mr President, this will close down automotive production within two weeks'," said Groser.
"Now, I believe it's completely wrong for us and our friends to say it's all bluster, it's all internal politics — no, it's more formidable than that. But the reactions to this will start to come into play."
On the flipside, Groser said it was clear the team around Trump were much more organised than they were after his 2016 win.
"I think he's much more formidable — the people around him are no longer just these mono-dimensional MAGA guys with baseball hats on the wrong way round.”
"I've just come back from 10 days in Washington and met a number of the people in the Trump system — there are some very sophisticated people around him. But most of all, I think he will be utterly ruthless."
As for what it could all mean for New Zealand, Groser said it was unlikely to be a target of Trump, but "bullets do ricochet".
"When he put in place steel and aluminium tariffs when I was ambassador, we were not the target — of course not. But they still involved us," he said.
Groser also said Trump's actions represent a clear breakdown of the "rules based international system" in which trading relationships weren't necessarily governed simply by power politics.
"The whole global rules-based system that I've lived all of my professional life and everyone like me has lived their lives in — this has been eroded over a period of years."
"In a deep structural sense — the final nail, frankly, in the usefulness of the WTO process has been put in place."
Groser said it may also embolden industry lobbies in the US to try and take out competitors, in areas that are vital to New Zealand’s economy.
"That is going to create an atmosphere where some of these groups who want to take out competition from Australia and New Zealand, even though we are natural friends, partners, economically, politically with them — yep, that could happen."
He added that successive New Zealand governments have signed bilateral free trade agreements, and other trade deals, which could act as an "insurance policy" against harsh and sudden tariffs.
Q+A with Jack Tame is funded by NZ on Air
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