New modelling suggests that global plastic waste could likely double by 2050 to more than 120 million tonnes if we stick to "business as usual".
However, a mix of policies could slash this by 90%.
Research by Chinese and US universities found plastic waste volumes would double to more than 120 million tonnes by the middle of the century.
Last year, 3.6 million tonnes of household and commercial waste arrived at New Zealand dumps and the country's rubbish makes up 4.5% of its greenhouse gas emissions.
Next week, a New Zealand delegation heads to South Korea where 175 countries will progress talks for a UN treaty to reduce plastic pollution.
Among those attending will be Matt Peryman (Ngāti Awa), a kaupapa Māori social scientist and researcher. He is also coordinator of the Tāngata Whenua Coalition for an Effective Plastics Treaty.
He said the future was "bleak" if negotiations were not successful.
"If [the treaty] watered down in the same way that something like the Paris agreement was for climate, we won't hit a target we need to in time."
It was a "pivotal moment in our history", he said.
"It's hard to even fathom for most people because plastics for most people are just like the obstructive objects you find on the beach that wash up. But it's so much bigger than that.
"It's the chemicals that are in our water systems and our bodies that are affecting our endocrine systems, our reproductive systems, all these things that we can't see."
University of Canterbury environmental science director Sally Gaw said recycling would not get us out of this problem.
"Removing the beads from cosmetics, plastic straws, those are more of the low-hanging fruit.
"Reducing the amount of mismanaged plastic waste in the environment will have the additional benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing the release of hazardous chemicals used in the manufacture of plastics."
Lorraine Shaab, who regularly organises Wellington beach clean-ups, said the modelling projections were "soul destroying" but also matched her observations.
"Drink and food packaging, bait bags, fishing line. You name it, we find it. Nappies too."
Standing on a section of Petone Beach, she said: "We've been cleaning the stretch of beach since 2017. When we started off, we'd collect maybe three or four bags of rubbish and in 2024 we're collecting between 20 and 40 bags of rubbish."
Earthlink chief executive Chris Ellis said the recycling and repairing centre expected things would "trickle away and die down" with the ban on single-use plastic bags.
"It's nothing like that now, we're collecting more plastic than we've ever collected before, we're busier than ever."
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