Analysis: Sam Cane's replacement in Paris contains intrigue but just as important is Razor's bench. He could be priming his own 'Bomb Squad', writes Patrick McKendry.
Sam Cane’s head injury and the requirement for a replacement against France in Paris has suddenly provided All Blacks followers with a window into head coach Scott Robertson’s thinking for next year and beyond.
It could well be that Cane’s Test career is now over after he suffered a badly gashed head and a concussion during the 23-13 victory over Ireland in Dublin.
It remains to be seen whether Cane, now following head injury assessment protocols and therefore unavailable to play at the Stade de France on Sunday morning NZT, will play a part in the All Blacks’ 14th and final Test of the year against Italy in Turin but it would appear doubtful and potentially counter productive given the fixture’s potential for Robertson to look to the future.
Having celebrated a victory in his 103rd Test last weekend, Cane, about to move to Japan, will be frustrated with the way his career has potentially ended but, after personal heartache in last year’s World Cup final in Paris and no guarantee of his place in Robertson’s plans this year, the former skipper can also be proud of his endeavours in 2024.
And his misfortune opens up several possibilities for Robertson in terms of his loose forward and bench mix.
With the Springboks cutting a swathe through Scotland when bringing on six forwards in the 46th minute in their scrappy victory in Edinburgh last weekend, and France coach Fabien Galthie likely to name a six-two forwards-backs split this week, could we see something similar from Robertson?
It would run counter to what the relatively conservative Robertson has shown so far, but, given the impact of the All Blacks’ back-up props Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Pasilio Tosi and lock Patrick Tuipulotu, it is a tantalising thought nevertheless.
The versatility the All Blacks possess in Ardie Savea and Wallace Sititi, two men almost certain to start at the Stade de France, would help with this should Robertson decide to double down.
Skipper and lock Scott Barrett has also started at blindside flanker in a Test and Savea, Sititi, and Du'Plessis Kirifi, called in as cover from the All Blacks XV, are all talented enough to play a role in the backline if required.
Robertson will require a back-up halfback – probably Cortez Ratima – and potentially an outside back which could be Beauden Barrett.
Midfielder Anton Lienert-Brown could be the unlucky one in this scenario but a bench containing Asafo Aumua, Tu’ungafasi, Tosi, Tuipulotu, another (uncapped) lock in Fabian Holland (also called in from the All Blacks XV as cover) and Peter Lakai would be high on size and power. Robertson could also potentially swap in the uncapped Kirifi for Holland should he want more mobility.
This is where the modern game is going. Say what you like about whether bringing on six fresh giant forwards as tactical substitutions like the Boks did recently is within the spirit of the game, it carries huge impact in a physical sense and also a mental one in terms of the opposition’s potential loss of morale.
If Robertson takes the more conservative route he could swap Cane for Lakai, with Samipeni Finau, the blindside flanker with limited minutes on this tour and indeed this year in general, remaining on the bench, but probably more likely is a swap for Savea from No.8 to No.7, Sititi from No.6 to No.8 and Finau from the bench to the blindside flank.
All this comes on top of Robertson’s decisions at halfback, first-five, right wing and fullback, of course, but it’s his mini “Bomb Squad” which has truly captivated on this tour and it will be intriguing to see how he tinkers with it in the hope of strengthening it.
There is a feeling in France that Les Bleus could be underdone with only last weekend's victory over Japan in their legs this season and a second-half power play off the bench from the All Blacks could be difficult to deal with on many levels.
Cam Roigard appears a shoo-in to start at halfback to counter the Antoine Dupont threat, with Damian McKenzie likely to retain the No.10 jersey after an excellent performance in Dublin.
If Robertson is committed to starting Will Jordan at fullback, which he appears to be, Sevu Reece may replace the injured Mark Tele’a on the right wing, with Beauden Barrett having to be content to sit on the bench.
Probable All Blacks squad to play France
At the Stade de France in Paris on Sunday, kick-off 9.10am NZT
1. Tamaiti Williams, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Scott Barrett ©, 5. Tupou Vaa’i, 6. Samipeni Finau, 7. Ardie Savea, 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Sevu Reece, 15. Will Jordan. Reserves: 16. Asafa Aumua, 17. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Peter Lakai, 21. Cortez Ratima, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Beauden Barrett.
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