An international law expert says "there is room for optimism" as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House amid a backdrop of global conflict.
Trump comfortably won last week's US election and will return to the White House early next year.
His re-election came as wars continued to rage in the Middle East and in Ukraine.
Professor Alexander Gillespie from the University of Waikato told Breakfast this morning: "The first thing to think about here is uncertainty.
"We know he had one term previously, and he did some dangerous things and he did some good things as well.
"It's quite possible that you could get agreements that we are not expecting, that he might be looking for a presidency which is quite unique.
"I know the tendency right now is to be pessimistic, but there is room for optimism."
Gillespie said Trump had the chance to set a new agenda.
Israel and the Middle East
"You've got three different agreements that need peace," he said. "You need peace in Gaza, you need peace in Lebanon, and you need peace with Iran.
"They shouldn't be connected, but they all are.
"I expect that what you'll see is that Mr Trump will be very supportive to Mr [Israeli prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, which will allow him to take the gloves off even more in Gaza.
"Despite there being concern, I think he is willing to allow more carnage to happen.
"The problem we have in this situation is that Israel will not listen to the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, or even the [UN] Security Council."
Gillespie said Trump's stance is "America first" – but unexpected deals could be made.
"He tried to bring the region together before his presidency ended, he might go back to that position but, with countries like Iran, you are in fundamental difficulty," he said.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Trump has pledged to settle the war between Russia and Ukraine.
"The deal he'll be looking at would be giving up the Crimea and eastern Ukraine to Russia and allowing the annexation," Gillespie said.
"Whether Ukraine would accept that and whether the Europeans would accept that is where the difficulty is."
He said countries supporting Ukraine, including New Zealand, would face a choice between continuing to support Ukraine or "moving away and allowing Russia to have the deal that it wants".
China faces more tariffs
Both current US President Joe Biden and Trump agree on tariffs for Chinese imports, Gillespie said.
"Trump will increase the tariffs even more," he continued. "But the uncertainty is what would happen over Taiwan.
"Mr Biden said he would defend it; Mr Trump is ambiguous.
"Other relationships, like with the Philippines, we're uncertain where he stands."
Asked about Trump's planned tariffs on other countries, including potentially New Zealand, Gillespie said: "What you're seeing is a movement away from a rules-based order to one based upon power and not as many principles as we've had in the past.
"This will benefit the United States, it may cause difficulty for other countries."
What should New Zealand expect?
Asked about Trump's possible impact on the New Zealand-United States relationship, Gillespie said: "In Mr Trump's world, you are either for him or you are against him, and he will expect those countries which are lined up next to the United States to deepen their commitment."
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