The most intriguing selection to play the Wallabies in Wellington will be at No.10 and a change is all but inevitable, writes Patrick McKendry.
Saturday’s Bledisloe Cup Test is probably the final chance for veterans Sam Cane and TJ Perenara to wear the black jersey at home but that pair, loyal servants though they are, won’t dominate the discourse like the individual named in the No.10 jersey tomorrow.
If Damian McKenzie’s uneven performance in the 31-28 victory over the Wallabies in Sydney put him in the spotlight, head coach Scott Robertson turned up the lumens the morning after when describing the first-five as “mercurial” and opening the door for a change at the Cake Tin.
“That’s a good question,” Robertson said, when asked if the selectors would consider a switch.
“We’ve backed him. You’ve got to do that. You’ve got to give someone the opportunity and time to hold those reins as long as they possibly can and have someone else who can play there, because it can change quite quickly.
“Beauden [Barrett] is clearly that, and with Stephen Perofeta injured again, Harry Plummer has come in and had a little cameo. It was a great moment for him after the game. Those are the other two options.”
It was an interesting exchange because there is a high likelihood that Robertson was considering a change anyway and to do so now, after describing McKenzie as “mercurial” – characterised by rapid and unpredictable change – may appear to be a punishment.
It means Robertson may not find it as easy to control the narrative as he would have liked.
The facts are that McKenzie has started all eight Tests this year, including two against the world champions in South Africa, and is probably due a break, or at least a break from the position.
He was good at times at Accor Stadium – his breakout for Cortez Ratima’s disallowed try was vintage McKenzie – but his decision making and inability to exert consistent control will remain a concern for Robertson and company.
After 55 Tests, McKenzie, 29, is no novice and in the continued absence of Richie Mo’unga – in Japan until 2026 – he is the best short-to-medium term option for the All Blacks, but there may be a sense of frustration building among the selectors.
The main source of angst will be that McKenzie was by far the best and most influential first-five in Super Rugby this year, but, for whatever reason, he has yet to consistently perform at the next level.
The other side of it is McKenzie’s goalkicking; flawless in Sydney when kicking five from five, and wayward in Cape Town when he missed three penalty attempts in the second half during the 18-12 defeat. He also missed two conversions during the All Blacks' 31-27 defeat in Johannesburg.
On the whole, it is good, but, when the pressure is on, it can be inconsistent - a bit like his form overall.
McKenzie’s performances aside, Robertson needs to try someone else there with the Northern tour approaching.
Barrett is the obvious choice to start in the No.10 jersey on Saturday assuming he has recovered from the illness that forced him out of the Test in Sydney.
Robertson’s Plan A for last weekend would likely have been switching Barrett from fullback to first-five for most of the second half, with McKenzie swapping to cover the back field.
It may be that McKenzie is best suited to playing fullback in Tests because there are few better at running against broken defences but, at 1.77m tall, he may be seen as too high a risk to play there for the entirety of big internationals due to a perceived vulnerability under the high ball.
As an aside, Caleb Clarke’s value has risen considerably recently in line with his excellence in this aspect of the game. It may also have resulted in Mark Tele’a’s recent fall from favour.
Could McKenzie be named at fullback, on the bench, or given a break altogether? The latter two are the most likely outcomes.
Jordie Barrett’s left knee injury will force a change in the midfield regardless – Anton Lienert-Brown will be favourite to replace him at second-five.
Will Robertson name Will Jordan at fullback? He certainly started well there last weekend but again failed to get the ball in his hands as much as the coaches would have liked. Tele’a is a possibility to start on the right wing ahead of Sevu Reece.
There is also lock Patrick Tuipulotu’s return from injury to consider and whether Robertson brings Ethan Blackadder back to the loose forward starting mix now that he has returned from a hamstring strain, but nothing is as intriguing as the announcement of the All Blacks’ No.10.
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