Analysis: TVNZ rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss a potential area of weakness for the world champs, among other matters.
Scotty, let’s get straight down to it: What do you make of Leon MacDonald’s shock departure, and what repercussions – good or bad – will it have on the team ahead of their gigantic challenge against the Boks on Sunday morning?
SS: The message has been very clear from the All Blacks: they’ve moved on. That may seem ruthless, but they don’t exactly have a choice at this point, as callous as that may seem.
The reality is everyone in the All Blacks environment is accountable for performance and team direction and those on the staff who now pick up the portfolio vacated by MacDonald will be fully focused on the challenge ahead.
It stands to reason that the team has a clearer picture on how it wants to attack. This was evidenced by the vast improvements seen at Eden Park. The players aren’t going to be asked to change too much this weekend.
That improvement does beg the question: Was that driven by MacDonald or by others coaching "over the top"? NZ Rugby insists the breakdown in relations was not performance based. The timing will, however, always feel a little strange.
As for the challenge ahead, it is always a massive one. However, the All Blacks have lost just once at Ellis Park since 2010. Do you think Kiwi fans should be a little more confident than they seem to be?
PM: Now that the Boks have named their team, yes I do. There is no Eben Etzebeth or Lood de Jager in the second row as Rassie Erasmus has been forced to select Pieter-Steph du Toit, the loose forward whose shoulders wreaked havoc against the All Blacks in last year’s World Cup final, in the No.5 jersey.
That is a boost for the All Blacks, who will have skipper Scott Barrett confirmed as playing when the team is announced at 5pm tomorrow NZT. The in-form Tupou Vaa’i will probably be named alongside him.
The All Blacks’ scrum has been a weapon for them this year and they will look to put pressure on the Boks there. Etzebeth’s unavailability should help with their goal.
The Boks will have returned from their successful Australia tour supremely confident in their game plan but, as you say, the All Blacks have enjoyed a fair bit of success at Ellis Park recently and will step onto the pitch with self belief in their own strategies.
Let’s get into some selection issues. Are you expecting anything different from Scott Robertson tomorrow? I’m thinking playmakers in particular here…
SS: You’re right about the scrum, Pat. The All Blacks should fancy themselves here and, if they scrum well, they’ll go a long way to putting the Boks on the back foot. The South African scrum has not functioned anywhere near as well as New Zealand’s so far this year.
As for selections. Always an intriguing decision in those key positions. I would be surprised if they swap out Damian McKenzie now. Robertson was all about backing him before the second Argentina Test and I would expect him to continue down that path. Beauden Barrett looked supremely assured at fullback and the addition of Will Jordan on the right wing seemed to offer greater confidence in the back field.
Similarly, after answering the critics at Eden Park, TJ Perenara should start again. The one ongoing challenge for him is finding his rhythm for kicks from the base, which require plenty of accuracy in Johannesburg.
There are a couple of areas of interest in the back line — namely left wing and centre. What are your thoughts on those choices and, maybe even more importantly, who starts on the open side for New Zealand?
PM: Good points, and yes left wing remains up for grabs after the selectors tried Caleb Clarke there ahead of Mark Tele’a at Eden Park recently. For me it’s a flip of a coin but Clarke may get the nod for his high-ball ability under what will inevitably be a kicking barrage from the Boks.
I agree with your assertion that Perenara, McKenzie, B. Barrett and Jordan will probably be the 9, 10, 15, 14 axis, for continuity reasons, although I would leave the door open for a very left-field selection in the form of Harry Plummer at first-five. I’m not sure, but I think the All Blacks could spring one surprise this week and the Blues No.10 could be it.
As for openside flanker, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sam Cane starting there ahead of Dalton Papali’i. The All Blacks have leaned on Cane heavily this week as they get to grips with the unique phenomenon that is Ellis Park and it would seem odd to have him starting on the bench after all that.
The Boks have beaten the All Blacks the last two times, including in last year’s World Cup final. A recall to the starting line-up for Cane would therefore be significant for obvious reasons… Which other All Black will be up for this one on an emotional level? Jordie Barrett perhaps?
SS: Take your pick of the Barretts on that count. I think all three would have a score to settle but should also have the requisite emotional intelligence to understand the assignment.
This much is real: Jordie Barrett will be happy Pieter-Steph du Toit will be playing a tighter role this weekend, after the latter took a real shine to him in the RWC final.
It will be fascinating to see how this group manages the occasion. Robertson has talked of his love for the place, Jason Ryan's first Test win as All Blacks forwards coach was claimed there last year, and this will be the first time all season the team has been exposed to a hostile environment. That could be a lift for them in a strange way.
We all know how special this rivalry is, but the All Blacks would do better not to get caught up in the attendant hype. They took a step forward in their last match, and they did it by harnessing the energy from within. The South Africans love to create noise and distraction, to engage in mind games and make hyperbolic statements. The best course of action is to avoid it all.
What this All Blacks team can't ignore is that they are still learning to trust in their plans. The Springboks — at face value, at least — don't harbour doubts about their playing style. Could this internal belief be the difference between the two teams on Sunday morning?
PM: Probably, yes, and while we won’t know the All Blacks’ 23 until tomorrow, it’s unlikely to contain wholesale changes from the Argentina Test. The Boks have made nine changes – some of them forced, as we’ve noted – but that in itself could be the difference.
The All Blacks trusted their skillset and delivered in atrocious weather conditions last time out. If they do the same at Ellis Park, assuming there is a requisite lift in intensity from their pack, they could do something special.
Final thoughts and a prediction, please?
SS: I think the All Blacks will want this result badly. A win is early, tangible evidence that they are heading in a positive direction. This is a day for big-time players, and there are enough of them in this team to deliver a win.
All Blacks by a couple of points.
PM: I'll go for the same. The All Blacks will need a good start but, after being a little pessimistic early in the week — I think they can and will do it.
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