Analysis: TVNZ rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry on what went wrong for the All Blacks last week and how they can maintain their Eden Park streak.
OK Scotty, that was a result and performance from the All Blacks against the Pumas in Wellington we weren’t expecting. Can you summarise what went wrong for the All Blacks in a Test they appeared to be in control of, and can you give us your main takeaways from the team selection for Eden Park?
SS: No mucking around, Pat!
We had written about cohesion and accuracy last week and those elements were missing from last week’s performance. It wasn’t all doom and gloom, but a failure to own the advantage line is an ongoing issue for the team. Add to that a paucity of quick ball which is having flow-on effects through the attacking structure. There is no way Damian McKenzie should be carrying the ball more than any other player in that side. The fact he did last weekend suggests the backline is being caught on the hop.
It was very interesting talking to skills coach Tamati Ellison today. He used the term "install", in reference to how the team have been training. In essence they have been loading a new style of game plan but have failed to train that under game conditions. That has certainly been something they have adjusted this week.
The team has a number of points of interest, but it's hard to land on a single philosophy. The forward pack gets another chance but is that a loyalty call or a needs-must decision? The Sam Cane selection is justifiable for the fact this team now just needs to win. They haven't got enough proof of performance out of the less experienced players.
I am guessing you'll have some interesting thoughts on the backline changes. For a team that's looking for cohesion on attack and defence, there are some bold calls on the outside. How can you sum up those decisions?
PM: "Interesting thoughts" … I’ll let others decide that ... But yes, you’ve hinted at how the coaches’ wish for cohesion marries with their changes at wing — Will Jordan gets his first start of the year and Caleb Clarke his second, plus there is Rieko Ioane’s recall at centre to consider.
Jordan’s selection is straightforward; given his form over the last few years he’s all but guaranteed a start at either fullback or right wing, and the All Blacks will be glad to have his finishing ability back in the run-on side. Clarke did well when starting against Fiji but this is a different challenge and Mark Tele’a can probably consider himself a little unlucky — although he is on the bench.
Clarke’s superior aerial skills in a Test that may be decided by the narrowest of margins may have been the deciding factor.
As for Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown didn’t do much wrong at the Cake Tin but he made a couple of defensive misreads and that, combined with Ioane’s quality in training, may have been the deciding factors.
It’s an intriguing squad selection, but overall, I think you’re right to bring up the lack of front-foot ball in Wellington because few backlines look good stuck in neutral or reverse. An improvement in that area tomorrow will have significant consequences.
Sam Cane’s selection on the bench is a heart-warming story, in my opinion. Your thoughts?
SS: I’m all for the sentimentality of it, but his selection also points to the cold hard reality that an heir apparent hasn’t quite emerged. Granted, Luke Jacobson is injured so hasn’t had the chance to really give that jersey a crack, but Dalton Papali’i will need to go up another gear this week, too.
I have enormous respect for Sam Cane, and his presence in this squad, given this season will be his last from an international point of view, is indicative of the tough spot this group finds itself in. There hasn’t been a lot of genuinely convincing evidence to suggest this team is ready to move on, and now they are also under enormous pressure to win well.
Cane gives them some security off the bench, and that could be important in the stretch if the All Blacks pack hasn’t learned its lessons from the opening Test in Wellington. I think he will be put in early. In fact, I was a little surprised he didn’t start, which I think suits him better than a finishing role.
Experience over potential might well be the catch cry of the week for this team. Which also brings us to the decision to once again start TJ Perenara, another who will be gone at the end of the season.
What would you like to see from the halfback in this one, and are you at all surprised the coaches haven’t thrown caution to the wind and gone with Ratima?
PM: Agree with regards to Cane — and he must have pushed close for a start. As for Perenara, I was surprised he got the nod ahead of Ratima. The looming wet weather in Auckland and McKenzie’s struggle to consistently manage the game in Wellington may have given Perenara an edge in the minds of the selectors, but I felt his kicking game was off at the Cake Tin.
That hamstrung the All Blacks in terms of their exits — a big issue. Added to that was his delivery, which was slower than what the All Blacks would have liked. We’ve heard a bit this year about the All Blacks not wanting to get into metaphorical arm wrestles and yet the selectors have again backed age (and experience) over youth (and pace).
You’ve hinted previously (and here with your reference to Ellison’s “install”) that the All Blacks have struggled with, to put it bluntly, information overload from their new coaches, all of whom would have been under pressure this week.
Is this the time for Razor to simplify things a little?
SS: I think that’s exactly what we will see this weekend. It has appeared to me that this team has had to take on board a lot of fresh intel but has then struggled to put theory into practice.
If the messages we have heard this week are to be believed one gets the impression this assignment is a roll up the sleeves and run hard and straight affair. I realise that’s over simplifying things, but you get the idea.
Simple plans well executed with enough athletic ability to create a dash of doubt and a hint of chaos — that has always been a hallmark of successful All Blacks sides. Securing possession quickly and giving McKenzie good time on the ball will be paramount in the minds of the forwards, and Perenara.
The selection of Jordan on the wing effectively gives the All Blacks a full cover kicking plan from deep, too. I would expect them to use the boots of Jordan and Beauden Barrett far more effectively this week.
Which brings us to the streak, and the respective motivations: For Argentina, a chance to make history in a most profound way, for the All Blacks, a desire to not find themselves on the wrong side of said history. Quite different, when you think about it. How desperate will the home side be?
PM: They should be as desperate as any All Blacks side that has helped uphold the nation’s remarkable 30-year unbeaten record at Eden Park. Another motivation, if any is needed, is the fact the All Blacks will lose their No.3 world ranking if they are defeated again.
One certainly gets the feeling the training week has been intense in terms of competition between playing rivals — and Tuesday’s on-field session sounds like it was a doozy.
That directness will help tomorrow should it translate to Eden Park because the All Blacks looked pretty good when they went straight up the middle in Wellington before they lost their way. A few more scrums will help with that — there were only four in total at the Cake Tin, the first coming after 60 minutes — remarkable.
You’re right to reference Argentina’s shot at history. They’re on the brink of something special and going by Agustin Creevy’s post-match reaction in a fantastic interview on Sky Sports, he and his teammates are well aware of it.
Prediction time. You first.
SS: I’m expecting a statement to be made in this one. Argentina will come out firing, but they did in Wellington, too, and weren’t punished on the scoreboard for conceding a bucket of early penalties. If they infringe like that in Auckland, I think there will be early intervention from the officials.
I think it’s time this All Blacks side put on a convincing show, and despite conditions (which look less than promising) I think they’ll be the better side by a couple of scores at least.
You?
PM: It’s tough to predict given the All Blacks’ inconsistency this year but overall I think the returns of Will Jordan and Sam Cane make this a stronger squad and better suited to the challenge. It could be close but I’ll also pick an All Blacks win by a closer margin — maybe seven points.
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