Logan Church: Bye Bye, Biden - will there now be victory or chaos?

Analysis: The Democrats have a tough fight ahead for the White House – but they need only look to NZ for an example of how elections can dramatically turn around in a short time, writes US correspondent Logan Church.

Sitting in a bar in a central Chicago hotel, a couple sitting across from me shook their heads in amazement.

US President Joe Biden had just dropped out of the election race. A week after Donald Trump was almost assassinated. In the middle of one of the most dramatic and volatile election races in living memory.

“It’s going to get even crazier from here,” one of them said to me, after they found out I was from New Zealand.

I do not doubt them.

If you watch American TV news, the last couple of weeks has seen wall-to-wall coverage of Biden’s mental and physical state.

Is he with it?

Is he too old?

Is he too frail?

All thought it would be a matter of when, not if, Biden would drop out.

And now here we are.

Even though I’ve spent the better part of the last week with Republicans at their national convention and Trump’s rally in Michigan, I’ve also spent quite a bit of time chatting to Democrats on the periphery of these events.

I spoke to Dave DeSimone, originally from Ohio and a lifetime Democrat who had voted blue in every election, in downtown Milwaukee ahead of Biden stepping down.

“Biden in 2020 was the right man for the job – I actually voted for Biden in 2020 to bring the country together as we were in the middle of a pandemic and we needed unity,” he said.

“He did a wonderful job, he really stabilised the country, but his declining cognitive ability is dividing the Democrat party.”

If there is one thing that Democrats and Republicans agree on, it’s that no one is happy with the polarisation in this country, and many I’ve been talking to say that will be front of mind when they step into a polling booth in November.

“Boy, it’s really troubling to be an American and seeing so much political division ... I think unity is something we would all benefit from,” DeSimone said.

As I write this from downtown Chicago, not far from where thousands of Democrats will gather in a few weeks to confirm their presidential pick, many are already backing Vice President and Biden’s (now former) running mate Kamala Harris as his replacement.

Biden himself has endorsed her in a second carefully crafted and timed statement that was released after his initial letter announcing his withdrawal from the election campaign.

Other prominent Democrats who may have thrown their hat into the ring, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, have already said they wouldn’t compete against Harris.

It would certainly make an interesting match-up.

Harris is a former prosecutor; Trump is a convicted criminal.

Harris comes from and represents minority communities; Trump comes from the wealthy New York elite.

And in a country that hasn’t had a female president, Harris is a woman, and Trump is a man.

The televised presidential debates would be electric if Harris was nominated by her party.

The Trump campaign has long been attacking Harris in what was likely anticipation of this eventuality.

“A vote for President Biden is a vote for President Harris,” has been a typical Republican talking point at rallies and events this past month. And in the last 24 hours the attack ads on TV and social media are coming out thick and fast.

Whoever does end up with the Democrat nomination, it won’t be an easy fight. The Republicans have been efficient and organised ahead of this election, marching to a single MAGA drum, and are confident of victory.

But if you want an example of how an election can be won in such a short timeframe, look no further than New Zealand – Jacinda Ardern took over her party and managed to form a government just seven weeks later.

It’s an example that has been brought up more than once here in the US in recent weeks.