Analysis: Patrick McKendry answers five burning questions ahead of Fiji Test, including which player and coach has the most to prove after England series.
1. Before we get to San Diego, let’s linger a little on the England series: were the All Blacks fortunate to win it 2-0?
Without a doubt, yes. Forget for a minute the England maul in the final seconds of the Eden Park Test – the tourists felt they had a good case for a penalty try which would have tied the game (they thought the ball carrier was tackled short of the line and the All Blacks didn’t release, conveniently forgetting that the obstruction, for which they were penalised, happened before that).
Go back to Dunedin – in trying to wind the clock down, Damian McKenzie overplayed his hand and went over time. It was rightly called by the referee. As the Test continued, it appeared Tupou Vaa’i was lucky to earn the penalty for the All Blacks after the final siren. He seemed to go off his feet at the breakdown. In a different world, Marcus Smith would have had a penalty from near halfway to win it. He hadn’t been kicking well all night.
At Eden Park the All Blacks were in a huge hole after halftime. The score was only 17-14 to England, but the home side couldn’t get out of their own half. They lacked ideas and confidence, and the crowd’s anxiety was palpable. Until Beauden Barrett’s intervention. It still seems odd that he was left on the bench for both Tests.
2. Which All Black has the most to gain against Fiji?
Ethan Blackadder at openside flanker. Samipeni Finau didn’t take his chances in the first two Tests of the year, and having been fully fit since the end the Super Rugby season, Blackadder will be hoping to capitalise. The 29-year-old, who has played 10 Tests, including during the last World Cup, is a relentless, destructive defender. In other words, the ideal candidate to start at blindside flanker against England. Instead, Finau got the nod there. Did the selectors, including former Crusaders coaches Scott Robertson and Jason Ryan, not want to appear to favour the Crusaders too much with their initial squads? Either way, Blackadder, who replaces Dalton Papali’i in the No.7 jersey, finally gets his opportunity.
A bonus question would be which coach has the most to prove, and that could be a toss-up between lineout throwing expert Corey Flynn, forwards coach Jason Ryan and attack coaches Jason Holland and Leon MacDonald. The lineout was shambolic at times against England and the attack too easily nullified.
3. How much of a splash are the All Blacks making Stateside?
Difficult to say. There is currently no New Zealand media there which may raise eyebrows from the local media being sold stories about the All Blacks’ aura and success. Head coach Robertson said earlier in the week that there were a lot of Kiwis who have made the trip, but he may have been referring to New Zealand Rugby staff.
Apparently a big contingent has found it necessary to be in San Diego. One newspaper in the city has found the time and space to cover the Test, but at the risk of incurring bad karma for pointing out someone's mistakes, some of the details aren’t quite right.
“The All Blacks, who lost to France in the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final, will roll out a new-look lineup Friday night as it prepares for its upcoming season, which gets serious Aug. 10 against Australia,” reads the story. That would be South Africa, and Argentina, respectively.
4. What are they doing there?
To spread the All Blacks gospel in the age of Silver Lake cash. The other option for the Test was Hamilton. It’s not difficult to see why there was apparently a push in certain quarters to play it in a city which gets about two days of rain a year, according to the intelligence given to assistant coach Jason Holland today.
Another bonus question – well, not so much a question, more an observation. In hiring so many coaches; Robertson, Ryan, Holland, MacDonald, Flynn, Scott Hansen, Tamati Ellison and others, plus having so many extra players attached to the 32-man squad during the England series, including Josh Lord, Sam Darry (on the bench tomorrow), Sam Cane, Peter Lakai, Ruben Love, George Bower, David Havili, Cam Roigard and Will Jordan, New Zealand Rugby must be paying a fortune in salaries and assembly fees.
5. Who wins and why?
The All Blacks should be too well organised and likely be on the right side of more pressure moments against a Fijian team which may surprise. New Zealand should win but it may be closer than many expect.
SHARE ME