Analysis: Razor's biggest All Blacks call and the keys to the first Test

1News rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry on selections, where the All Blacks will attack England, and Jordie Barrett's importance.

Scotty, your thoughts on Razor’s first team please and, let’s cut to the chase here, what do you make of the fullback selection – Stephen Perofeta ahead of Beauden Barrett?

SS: In reality this feels like a pretty settled team, which seems odd given the small amount of time together as a squad.

If you look through the pack you'd say openside was a toss up between Dalton Papali'i and Luke Jacobson but they've managed to get both in the match 23. The locks picked themselves, and the front row also.

The backline's biggest talking points were halfback and fullback. The All Blacks want TJ Perenara's combativeness and experience and that is understandable given this assignment.

The Perofeta call is the biggest but I like it. He has proven himself to be a proficient performer there and deserves a shot having committed to a Super Rugby season, and showing he is a hybrid who is happy to let the first-five call the shots.

I think Beauden Barrett is the better option off the bench. If this game gets tight, and plan A is not working, he's the one you want off the pine.

I'm sure they will use all 23, but on Barrett - what do you think the strategy is here if he is used as a standard, rather than injury, replacement? Does he slot into 10 or 15 when his chance comes?

PM: An excellent question. I suspect Barrett will replace Perofeta and slot in at fullback, but I can see him being first receiver and testing the potentially tiring England defence on occasion, too, in partnership with Damian McKenzie.

It’s what he was so good at when he first burst on to the scene 12 years ago and he still has the pace and acceleration to reprise that role.

I can understand the Perenara selection at halfback over Christie but I do have reservations about Perofeta’s relative lack of experience at the back.

We will get into England’s probable tactics soon but they will kick a lot. If they kick well, then Perofeta will be under pressure from the start. If they don’t then his counter-attacking skills could hurt them. That’s the gamble Razor and his selectors are taking and one of the reasons why this Test is so fascinating.

What’s your feel about how the All Blacks will attack? Can you see much changing in terms of overall strategy?

SS: I expect they’ll want big carries from the likes of Scott Barrett and Patrick Tuipulotu, and there will be some variation on pods allowing for release balls to be worked by McKenzie, and powered forward by Jordie Barrett.

Mark Tele’a’s selection on the left is an indication that it might be a busy day for the likes of outside backs George Furbank and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso who will likely be asked to clear from that right corner when the All Blacks wings come hard on the chase and press.

Ardie Savea will have a licence to range a little wider and they’ll want to use the full width when available. Rieko Ioane is an excellent creator down the 15m tramline and they’ll flood with the extra men once they manipulate England’s defence through the middle.

Set piece attack could surprise. I think the All Blacks will try some specials off lineout, knowing how much chaos both Sevu Reece and Tele’a can cause. The early scrum battles will dictate play. Ascendancy gives Savea a carry card, but a tighter fight will likely mean Perenara and McKenzie run short and open side respectively.

While on the subject of attack, there’s been plenty of chatter about the attacking mindset of this England side. Can you see them genuinely backing themselves to bring some flair to this first test?

PM: While they developed their attacking game during the Six Nations, I can’t see them taking any risks.

So, I doubt they will ‘play’ much in their own half. Prepare for high kicks, box kicks, all sorts of kicks, as they attempt to create pressure. As I’ve mentioned, that can backfire, too, and in Perofeta, Tele’a, Reece, McKenzie and Jordie Barrett the All Blacks have some of the best broken-field runners in the world.

England have individuals who can attack with flair but overall I doubt they will attempt to play with much ambition outside the All Blacks’ red zone. They’ll bring a high-pressure game built around possession and territory.

None of which is a criticism. And, who knows, it may be enough.

I think you’re right about the All Blacks’ attacking ideals of punching through then wide. If we are to use the Razor-coached Crusaders as a guide, the All Blacks will be ruthless around the fundamentals and will be given full licence to express themselves if the opportunities are there. Don’t be surprised to see them have a crack at the English maul, either.

Let’s focus for a second on Jordie Barrett, one of the two new vice-captains, along with Savea, under brother Scott.

It strikes me that that leadership role is a recognition of how important the 27-year-old midfielder has become to this All Blacks team.

I think he’s matured a lot over the last couple of years and he’s set for a big year. Would you agree?

SS: I do agree. We so often forget that players like Barrett are learning to be men as much as players and they are doing that under immense scrutiny and with huge performance pressures upon them.

His maturing as a player reflects his maturing as a person. Essentially, he's grown into his own skin. Alongside that he's grown an awareness of his importance to the team, and knows many of the plays are designed around him - his ability to make metres, drag defenders, pose a threat on and off the ball, and visualise moves for his outsides.

Barrett's rare in that he is comfortable and playing both the star and supporting roles in the same production. That comfort comes from faith in his own ability and consistent selection. In turn, that enables a progression to leadership.

I think Jordie Barrett will be central to every All Blacks' performance this year.

Continuing the Barrett chat, what do you make of Scott's leadership style and how will he fulfil this role in black?

PM: Like the head coach, Scott Barrett just has to be himself to be an effective leader, and I think he will be. In other words, he won’t go too far from his style as the Crusaders captain which was to lead by example as a consistently high-performing lock with an incredible engine and work rate.

I wouldn’t expect inspirational off-the-cuff addresses, but I don’t think you would either.

Finally, who comes out on top in the Dunedin hothouse tomorrow and why?

SS: The All Blacks will have to adjust to Test football mode very quickly. I had the pleasure of speaking to former All Blacks captain Richie McCaw this morning and he said the first 10 minutes against teams like England never failed to surprise in terms of the intensity of contact. Even though he knew it was coming, it was always greater than expected.

That is as good a cautionary tale as I can think of.

If the adjustment comes, and the discipline is there in accordance, I do think there is enough experience and talent in the home side to put on a good show. Taking nothing away from England, but there is simply too much to play for from a New Zealand perspective.

I think the All Blacks to do the job with a margin of 12-15 points.

And you?

PM: Agree with everything you say here. I hesitate to use the word “energy” in connection with Razor because it’s in danger of being over-blown in his case but I think the All Blacks will have too much of it for England.