The coalition Government would retain its hold on power if an election were held today, a new 1News Verian poll suggests.
In the poll, which ran from June 15 to 19 and surveyed 1002 eligible voters, 38% said they would give their party vote to National. Alongside ACT’s 7% and New Zealand First’s 6%, that brought the Government’s numbers in Parliament to 64 - four fewer than its current size, but enough to form a government.
Based on the last 1News Verian poll results in April, New Zealand First was out of Parliament - but tonight’s poll sees the party of Winston Peters back over the 5% party vote threshold - making a crucial difference to the coalition’s grip on power.
Labour, meanwhile, has dropped below the 30% mark again, to 29% of the party vote. The Greens also dropped 1% to 13% and Te Pāti Māori dropped 0.4%.
Seat allocation is based on an assumption of Te Pāti Māori retaining its six Māori electorate seats.
It meant, should those three parties wish to combine as a coalition, the so-called “left bloc” would reach just 58 seats: not enough to form a government.
Luxon holds 5 point advantage in preferred PM stakes
In the preferred prime minister stakes, 23% named Christopher Luxon as their pick for the top job. That was steady on the last poll, but a dip from 26% at the beginning of October last year. For Chris Hipkins, 18% preferred him as prime minister, a 2% recovery on the last poll, but down on 25% in October last year.
Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick maintained her third position with 6%, followed by Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters on 4% and future deputy prime minister David Seymour, also on 4%.
The 1News Verian Poll shows while Christopher Luxon remains the preferred PM, Chris Hipkins has gained ground. (Source: 1News)
Party vote
National – 38% (up 2%)
Labour – 29% (down 1%)
Green – 13% (down 1%)
ACT – 7% (steady)
New Zealand First – 6% (up 1.8%)
Te Pāti Māori – 3.3% (down 0.4%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1.5% (up 0.3%)
Don't know / refused to say – 11% (up 3%)
Seats in the House
(Calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori retains its electorates.)
National – 47
Labour – 36
Green – 16
ACT – 9
New Zealand First – 8
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 23% (steady)
Chris Hipkins – 18% (up 2%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (steady)
Winston Peters – 4% (steady)
David Seymour – 4% (down 1%)
See the full poll results and methodology here.
Between June 15 and 19 2024, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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