Analysis: Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss where the competition showpiece may be won and lost, and which team may be the most 'street-smart'.
Scotty, a couple of big are names back from injury for the Blues and Chiefs for Saturday’s Super Rugby final: skipper and lock Patrick Tuipulotu for the Blues and fullback Shaun Stevenson for the Chiefs.
How significant is this, and who benefits the most?
SS: Firstly, I can’t quite believe Patella Trick Tuipulotu is starting this match, given his recovery was initially slated for six to seven weeks, and it’s been less than three. That’s a remarkable piece of healing work from the Blues captain!
That said, his return is totemic for the Blues. Tuipulotu has been a mammoth presence for the Blues since his original return from injury (broken jaw) this season. He makes tough tackles, carries with plenty of heart, and brings a calmness to the captaincy that will be hugely important in what looks set to be a frenetic final. The Chiefs will try to niggle this Blues pack, and a player like Tuipulotu will be hard to destabilise.
Stevenson’s absence was not keenly felt by the Chiefs last weekend, but I still think he offers the kind of threat the Chiefs will need on Saturday. I have written before of the connection he has with Damian McKenzie – a dual playmaker scenario with Stevenson interested only in chiming in when strictly necessary, as opposed to a hybrid player with the propensity to want to dominate the ballplaying.
The Chiefs will be thankful to have him back for the experience, but in a straight shoot out I do think the return of Tuipulotu, for the desire and desperation it represents, is the more beneficial of the two recalls.
Can we dwell a bit on the sell out crowd for a second? Does this represent a serious change in fortunes for Super Rugby or are we at risk of mistaking a false dawn for a new day?
PM: I’m reluctant to describe the sellout as signifying a change of fortune for the competition – you only have to look back a week to the empty seats for the Blues’ semifinal win over the Brumbies to realise rugby supporters in Auckland and beyond are selective in the way they part with their cash. And fair enough too. There were also a lot of empty seats at Sky Stadium last week for the Chiefs’ win over the Hurricanes in what was an entertaining and high-quality match – that was harder to work out given the form of the Canes this season and the fact they were playing a Kiwi team.
There is little doubt that a Crusaders-less playoffs has breathed life back into the competition, though, and supporters from both the Blues and Chiefs will have high hopes of winning. The Chiefs’ proximity just down SH1 has also created demand and will add to the buzz. The home side will probably enjoy the majority of the support, but Chiefs’ fans will show up in numbers and in good voice. It will make for a special atmosphere.
Just on that, we spoke last week about the potential for spiciness in this match-up. I think you’ve hinted at it in your summary of big Patty’s return, but where do you think it will be won and lost?
SS: Finals like this tend to be won on the gain line, and by the team that shows the most discipline. The Chiefs are an outrageously good side at fighting for every inch when it comes to ruck ball, and their midfielders are effective on the jackal. It is deep in the Chiefs' DNA to fight tooth and nail for the ball, but that can come at a cost. They do run the risk of putting enthusiasm ahead of execution and that can be costly on the penalty front.
The Blues have added some serious starch of their own to the ruck but are a tad more selective in the plays they attempt. That can be a good plan when it comes to keeping their sheet cleaner than the opposition’s, but I think the Chiefs style of play will goad the Blues into making moves that aren’t there to make. This is why the Chiefs a niggly side; it’s not the fact that they play dirty, they just play aggressively, and they look for that battle where other teams might traditionally not, effectively making that team operate outside their comfort zone.
At set piece the scrum is an even contest, but the pressure will be on the Chiefs at lineout. Chiefs hooker Tyrone Thompson has not had a lot of recent game time to hone his throwing and the home side should be looking for contestable ball all night.
If you want the other key battleground, I’ll offer up the kicking games of McKenzie and Harry Plummer. If the Chiefs can take away the middle of the park the Blues will have to find riskier options. If the Blues can kick to space, they can starve the Chiefs of transition ball.
I know you have some deep thoughts here, so would love to know if there are key match ups for you upon which the result rests?
PM: The Plummer v McKenzie match-up will be important, as you say, for their differences as much as their similarities.
I also like the battle of the No8s and the names separated by a couple of vowels. Hoskins Sotutu v Wallace Sititi will be worth the price of admission alone.
And then you’ve got the All Blacks midfielders Rieko Ioane v Anton Lienert-Brown, and some of the best outside backs in the competition facing off against each other.
I agree with you about the Chiefs’ doggedness at the gainline. I’d go further and say the Chiefs may have an edge through what I can only describe as “street-smarts”. They showed it at Sky Stadium last weekend via their work at the breakdown, and the Hurricanes, especially their loose forwards, looked a little naïve by comparison.
It means they have a game well suited to finals football. I know the Blues do too due to their newfound ruthlessness up front, but will the home side rue their relatively stress-free past fortnight in blowing past the Drua and Brumbies?
After ramping up the intensity for their win over the Reds and sustaining it against the Canes, the Chiefs are well and truly in finals mode. They have to go back to the well on Saturday of course, but I wonder if the Blues realise how deep they will have to go to subdue this team.
The contest between the coaches who know each other pretty well is fascinating too isn’t it?
SS: It’s a brilliant coaching match up – and I refer to the head coaches here, though both teams boast an outstanding roster of assistants who are very well drilled in their respective areas.
Vern Cotter seemed like an unlikely candidate for the Blues top job when he was first appointed, while Clayton McMillan always seemed tailor-made for the Chiefs. As it stands, the Blues got their selection just right. Cotter’s wealth of experience in competitions that reward grind was just what this team needed. “Stern” Vern is a catchy nickname, but it does him a disservice. He has a wonderful empathy for his players and that empathy allows him to expect a lot of them.
Cotter has taken a workshop filled with the right materials and brought the tools required to assemble something akin to the finished product. He brings a great design ethic to this side in terms of how he can extract as much as possible from its constituent parts.
In the other box, a bloke who played three seasons for Bay of Plenty under Cotter. Both were No.8s as players, too, and it is easy to see they share many of the same qualities as men and as coaches.
McMillan, like Cotter, carries himself with immense mana and can effortlessly switch between the brick and the bouquet. He embodies the modern culture of the club in a way that his predecessor, Warren Gatland, couldn’t. McMillan appears imbued with tactical nous – back-to-back finals is no small feat, but it’s his obvious love for, and sense of duty to, the Chiefs culture that remind me of another loose forward who became a fairly handy coach.
One thing’s for sure, I don’t think either of them will be going into this with any blind spots. They both know exactly what’s coming.
You listed a couple of key match-ups above, and we could include many more, but let’s turn our attention to the elephant on Eden Park.
How do you think the officiating team will approach this match? And how likely are we to see this one come down to one or two key decisions?
PM: I’m sure as professionals they will approach it like any other. It’s a big occasion for sure and the stakes are high, but nothing else will change. There may be a feeling that this game will be decided by a card but that applies to every game, let alone a final.
In my opinion we are fortunate that should the colour of that card be red then the player affected will be replaced after 20 minutes, a far more equitable result than that applied to international rugby, and we can look at the World Cup final as evidence of that.
Ultimately, though, the players know the sanctions for foul play, and they should adjust accordingly.
Speaking of which, All Blacks captain Sam Cane, red carded in Paris in November, was yellow carded at the end of last year’s final against the Crusaders. It was costly.
That Chiefs’ reverse to the Crusaders still burns brightly at their base in Ruakura. How important will that be in terms of their mindset? Could it be the difference?
SS: I think both teams will extract a portion of their motivation from their respective losses to the Crusaders. I know the Blues have spoken internally about the 2022 final already this week but have parked that in favour of looking ahead. The Chiefs will have done the same regarding 2023, and losing a final does leave an itch that needs to be scratched. I’m still not over the 1996 North Harbour u19 club final, but that’s a story for another day.
I imagine it’s a balancing act between not looking too far ahead and not being stuck in the past. Both teams will know what is coming and both will feel the pressure of the zero-sum game this weekend. The Blues know, for all their improvement this year, that this is the game they need to win. The Chiefs will have less pressure on them, but no less desire.
All of which is a labyrinthian way to say pain is not always the best motivator, and hopefully those players who have tasted finals defeat don’t get lost in the emotional forest on the quest for redemption.
Let’s put our cards on the table, shall we? We’ve laid out a fine spread of punditry morsels here, time for the main course. Pick me a winner.
PM: After thinking all week that this one is the Blues’ to lose, I’m now in danger of talking myself into the Chiefs’ camp. I will resist that, though, and will suggest their pack may get the Blues home by a nose.
And you?
SS: This is far more fun when we take opposing views. It’s incredibly close to call and there are sound arguments both ways, but I’ll take the Chiefs by a whisker.
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