The Blues have the pack and motivation to win their first title since 2003, but the Chiefs will travel with confidence, writes 1News sport reporter Patrick McKendry.
The Blues have got exactly what they wanted from the weekend - a relatively stress-free victory over the Brumbies in their Super Rugby semifinal and a Chiefs upset over the Hurricanes in the other which provides them with a home final.
But, after their 34-20 win over the men from Canberra, which was all but sewn up by the end of the first quarter, what will they get next Saturday night at Eden Park?
On the evidence of the Chiefs’ upset 30-19 victory in Wellington, they will face a team down on hookers but certainly not self-belief, attacking inspiration or defensive grit.
The injuries to Samisoni Taukei’aho and Bradley Slater may require a club player to step up in what will likely be the biggest match of his life but the Chiefs have played with such intensity over the past two weeks of the playoffs that they will arrive with form, momentum and a point to prove. Clearly their final defeat to the Crusaders in Hamilton last year still burns.
Similarly, the Blues’ failure at this point two years ago against the Crusaders is a driving force.
The Hurricanes were the most consistent team in the competition, but it was clear they were not ready for such a high-stakes game and they were blown away by the early Chiefs’ onslaught, much as the Reds were in Hamilton the previous week.
Clark Laidlaw’s men had done superbly well to reach the playoffs as the top-seeded team but didn’t have recent finals disappointments or indeed finals experience full stop to draw on.
The key Chiefs’ decision makers – halfback Cortez Ratima, first-five Damian McKenzie and fullback Etoni Nanai-Seturo - also outplayed opposites TJ Perenara, Brett Cameron and Ruben Love, and in Wallace Sititi the visitors had a loose forward playing the game of his life.
The Blues out-muscled the Brumbies – a considerable feat when looked at in the context of this season – but not so much the bigger picture.
No Australian team has ever won a Super Rugby playoff match in New Zealand. The Brumbies needed everything to go right to have any chance but instead found themselves in a 24-6 hole after 22 minutes with the Blues picking apart the visitors’ set piece and the backs, particularly Caleb Clarke, making the most of the forward momentum.
The rows of empty seats suggested many Blues’ fans felt this result was a fait accompli, but Chiefs’ fans will feel the final is a 50-50 affair even despite their side losing at Eden Park in the final round-robin game.
“We’re all pretty happy, but we’ve got one more job to do. We can celebrate, a little bit, making it to a final because we all know it’s a tough season,” Blues skipper Dalton Papali’i said.
“We’ve been in this position and failed. We know what’s on the line and we’ve got to train the house down.”
Two more observations on the Blues - they have a coach in Vern Cotter who will not enable any complacency. In addition, Cotter has designed a forward-oriented game plan perfectly suited to this time of year.
This match will billed as the battle of State Highway 1, and the home side have the pack to take the direct route. It may be the deciding factor.
They last won a fully-fledged Super Rugby championship in 2003. The Chiefs won their only two titles back-to-back in 2012 and 2013.
For his part, Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan said he had seen elements of nervousness in the Hurricanes’ quarter-final win over the Rebels that suggested they could be vulnerable to pressure.
The Chiefs made no secret of the fact they would target second-five Jordie Barrett and the main Hurricanes’ attacking weapon was largely nullified.
“We saw a little bit of anxiety and tension in the Hurricanes’ performance last week and felt that if we got off to a good start it might tighten them up,” McMillan said.
If, as the old saying goes, you need to lose a final to win a final, there is another championship truism relevant here, and that is the importance of scoreboard pressure.
Both the Brumbies and Hurricanes had little chance after their poor starts which puts into sharp relief once again the achievements of the All Blacks in fighting back to lose the World Cup final last November despite playing with 14 men for most of it and trailing 6-12 at halftime.
To lose by one point in such circumstances really was extraordinary.
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