Analysis: What Narendra Modi's narrow election win means

Analysis: India's election results were met with surprise as the incumbents won fewer seats than expected. 1News reporter Corazon Miller was in India as those results rolled in.

On the streets of Delhi, curiosity at the foreign news crew quickly gave way to the realisation why we were here. "Elections," they smiled. "Modi."

Some were curious as to how we saw India and its leader. "Do you think India is a democracy?"

Before coming here, it was a question I felt I had answers for.

But you can never truly know a place until you’ve been, until you’ve met its people and spoken to those whose lives this election affects.

India’s election seemed like a foregone conclusion. After a decade in power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity did not appear to be fading.

He was the face of the ruling party’s campaign. He was adored by millions, in some cases revered.

A comfortable win for him and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seemed likely. So much so, their campaign was known by "Ab ki baar, char sau paar" — this time beyond 400 (out of 543 parliamentary seats).

Those who voted for him told me he had taken the nation to greatness. They said India’s economic prosperity would be guaranteed under Modi, that the country would be united like never before as he boosted the nation’s infrastructure.

But Modi was polarising, with critics accusing him of creating religious division and muzzling any opposition or criticism.

Any report that risked portraying his rule in a negative light seemed to be criticised. I was told by an angry Modi supporter to "grow up and be a real reporter".

But local workers told me it was not fair how little of India’s collective wealth they earned, given their role in feeding the nation and its burgeoning GDP.

Farmers who ploughed the land that was vital to ensuring India’s food supply said they were struggling. Despite that, some were still drawn to Modi and voted for his promises.

Yet others voted for change.

And it seemed Modi and the BJP underestimated the dissatisfaction that had crept into their support base.

The election results fell far short of the 400 seats the incumbent wanted to secure a super-majority, to help him and his party deliver on their priorities.

It was a failure many have placed on Modi.

And it was one that has an economic downside for India. Upon news of a much narrower victory for Modi, Indian shares suffered their worst fall since early 2020.

His reliance on smaller parties for support has created uncertainty that he would be able to pursue his pro-business agenda.

The weakened mandate was one the opposition and minority groups were celebrating as a win.

Giving the BJP such a majority would have given it enough power to change the constitution, although the party denied this was ever part of its plans.

But the BJP’s failure to secure a simple majority — with just 240 of the required 272 seats — meant,even with its allies, its power was weakened.

It also meant the voices of those who may have felt unable to speak before may use their voices going forward – which some will say is a win for democracy.

Corazon Miller travelled to India with the assistance of the Asia New Zealand Foundation.