In the lead-up to Budget 2024, TVNZ Chief Correspondent John Campbell travelled to the Far North to uncover the challenges faced by locals and to explore how the Budget might impact their lives.
We asked him your questions in a live chat and filmed some of our favourites for the video above.
What will the Budget do to ensure issues of inequality are addressed? - Charles
Charles, that’s such a great question. I’m not sure it will do a great deal. But National didn’t campaign on that. They campaigned on the “squeezed middle”, as I’m sure you’ll remember. And the thing about the middle is that it exists between the extremes of inequality. For those below the squeezed middle, my sense is, and certainly the tea leaves are pretty readable here, there won’t be much for them.
Getting inflation under control will make a difference, however, for people for whom eating regularly and reasonably is increasingly out of reach. And getting rents down would make a difference. Will landlords pass their tax windfall on? State housing provision, that matters. But this isn’t a coalition that has significantly campaigned on that.
I’ve written about this, a lot. How our politics, generally, has stepped back from profound and transformative determinations to really tackle inequality. This from two years ago. One thing to keep an eye on, I’m told, is child poverty reduction targets. That could be really revealing.
Will our schools lose their free lunches? - Tina
No. There were real concerns about the future of the Ka Ora, Ka Ako - Healthy School Lunches programme, particularly after David Seymour described it as “wasteful”, “unaffordable”, and a “marketing stunt”.
It is being retained – which was welcomed by everyone I spoke to. But (and politics is always about the “but”, eh?) it’s being reduced by “approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it”.
So, the programme carries on, minus $100m, and the question is – what will it look like? The Government talks about funding “an interim model which will be put in place for 2025 and 2026 while a full redesign of the programme is implemented”.
I guess what I heard, and keep hearing, is that the programme is so valuable for many children, and that whatever happens it must be retained in a form that is available, edible and nutritious.
On my roadie up north I heard how when there are lunches left over at school, students take them home for their siblings or to eat for dinner. It was a heartbreaking details about how scare food is in some homes.
Will you be able to earn more before you pay tax? Is this how the tax cut works? - Ian
Ian, it’s hard to say, exactly, what the tax cuts will look like, to the cent. And I watched the PM on Breakfast this morning, not answering exactly that question. LOL. Fair enough, the Budget is released on Budget Day. But what we can say, with certainty, is that there will be threshold adjustments.
So, where you move into the next tax bracket will be tweaked. The PM and Nicola Willis have repeatedly assured us of that. Essentially, these are inflation adjustments. So, they won’t be large. But they do mean your income isn’t being eaten by inflation around tax bracket points. Interestingly, threshold adjustment like this is becoming quite common. It’s happening in Australia, too.
Will the Budget address the problems with New Zealand’s water infrastructure? You spent a lot of time covering that issue earlier this year - Tapuaki
That’s such a good question. (Thank you.) Many people believe it needs to. To recap, the Government announced a new policy, Local Water Done Well. Three Waters, the previous Government’s policy, was flushed – to use a water analogy.
In short, to quote directly from the new policy itself, the intention is to “ensure that drinking water, stormwater and wastewater remain in local control, with strict water quality standards and a requirement for councils to invest in the ongoing maintenance and replacement of their vital water infrastructure.” Right?! 😊 Now, local control is largely welcomed. And water quality standards and investment in water infrastructure are essential. So, two out of two. That’s a good start.
But the issue is funding. Some councils don’t have the money. And the policy doesn’t contain it. And, in some cases, no amount of the Government saying councils have to find the money is going to make any difference.
In the Far North region, for example, it’s estimated that getting their water and wastewater infrastructure up to standard will cost somewhere in the region of $600 million. They don’t have that. They can’t borrow that. Their entire annual budget, for everything, is roughly $170 million. So, who will pay for it? I spoke to the Minister, Simeon Brown.
It’s important to acknowledge that this policy isn’t full and final yet. But the key issue now is money. And councils are hoping the Government will contain it – or there’ll be a significant announcement later in the year.
Do you think the Government will reduce the winter energy payment? - Ally
Kia ora Ally – no, I don‘t. Christopher Luxon has repeatedly said he won’t. It’s already begun for this year, anyway. Here are the eligibility requirements.
Ally, I think when we go through the fine print of the Budget, eligibility to benefits, entitlements, state support, etc, may be where the devil is in the detail. Not everyone on the right supports the universality of the Winter Energy payment for superannuitants. But it’s been strongly signalled that it will stay.
It appears that the Government is now backtracking on its promise to fund new cancer treatments. Can we expect more broken promises such as this in the budget? - Alan
Alan, we can expect more broken promises. But this, in part, is the nature of MMP. In other words, if National (like Labour in 2020) had been elected with an absolute majority, you’d have a Budget more consistent with National’s promises. Coalitions equal compromise, concessions, and yes, broken promises. Although, National’s promises were unlikely to have ever survived intact—their math was hopeful, and times are tough.
Will the tax cut make up the difference that my daughter has lost since half price public transport was slashed? She is on 50k a year but now, after rent in Auckland and medical expenses, she is choosing to go without food so she can get to work — Helen
Helen, this is kind of the heart of the ideological split between left and right, I guess? Subsidise public transport, or give people tax cuts to catch buses with? I’m being simplistic, of course. But my guess is that any tax cut your daughter receives will not make her better off, net, after transport increases, rent increases, etc.
Can you let me know at news@tvnz.co.nz—put HELEN in the subject line. I’d love to see the answer to this question. Thank you! And best wishes to you and your daughter.
What do you think the 2024 Budget will be known as? i.e. last year's 'no frills' Budget — Max
My sense is this is a 'balancing act Budget' — there are a whole lot of people holding on for tax cuts, rent relief, healthcare, inflation control, etc... On the other hand, there is growing pressure from the political right for greater debt management and spending control.
Phew! Giving with one hand, taking away with the other, then selling it as balanced. Max, it takes time for the real details of the Budget to emerge. The sales pitch is always triumphant, the details are what will define it over the long term.
Live coverage of the Budget on 1News.co.nz from 2pm on Thursday, with a Q+A Special on TVNZ1 from 2-4pm, and full detail and analysis on 1News at 6pm.
SHARE ME