Analysis: The kayaking rivals are so far ahead of the chasing pack that a New Zealand 1-2 in Paris appears highly likely, writes Guy Heveldt.
Saturday, August 10, 11pm (NZT).
75 days.
Set the alarm, clear the diary, find the comfy part of the couch. A piece of New Zealand sporting history will be written that night.
It will be an unmissable two minutes.
Dame Lisa Carrington versus Aimee Fisher. An Olympics battle that, on all evidence, will produce a famous Kiwi 1-2. In what order they finish, who knows, but it seems certain they will be the quinella, and what a quinella it will be.
Aimee Fisher has scored another win over Dame Lisa Carrington in the final race between the pair before Paris. (Source: 1News)
Fisher has delivered two stunning results to beat five-time Olympic gold medallist Carrington in the most recent World Cup regattas. First in Szeged, Hungary and, last night, in Poznan, Poland.
In both races they’ve been so far ahead of the rest of the world, it’s been a black and white domination. Barring injury or illness, some head-scratching turnaround in form from their overseas rivals or a bluff the Vegas poker tables would be proud of, it will be the Kiwi duo at the head of the pack going stroke-for-stroke for Olympic gold.
Not since Hamish Carter and Bevan Docherty’s epic 1-2 in the men’s triathlon in Athens has New Zealand had an Olympic double in the same event. That’s finally set to be re-written.
There are no more races in the public eye between now and the final. Carrington has the Olympic gold medals to her name, but Fisher has the back-to-back World Cup wins. She could well have made a psychological dent in the phenomenon of Carrington and, equally, given herself a psychological boost of unquantifiable measures.
The race pattern will more than likely be the same – Carrington will fly out of the blocks and try to hold on, while Fisher will no doubt show the fast finish that’s nabbed her the two gold medals in recent weeks.
But, there will be one significant difference between the Olympics canoe sprint regatta and Szeged and Poznan. The schedule.
As well as the K1, Carrington is competing in the K2 alongside Alicia Hoskin and also in the K4 with Hoskin, Olivia Brett and Tara Vaughan. Fisher will also line up in the K2 with Lucy Matehaere.
In the World Cup regattas, all three of Carrington’s events have been spaced over three gruelling days. That’s heats, semi-finals and the final for all three events, so nine races in just three days. She will get somewhat of a reprieve in Paris, with the canoe sprint schedule spaced out over five days.
The importance of that extra rest can’t be understated. The K1 500 final is the fifth-to-last event of the entire programme, meaning Carrington will have exerted plenty of energy in the lead up to the race. She’s made no secret of wanting to win what would be New Zealand’s first-ever women’s K4 medal at the Olympics and, alongside Hoskin, the determination to claim K2 gold will be equally strong.
While she won’t have a day off over the five days of competition, the events are far more spaced out and a lot more spread than they were in Tokyo. That has to be a relief for the legendary paddler.
But across the way, when she lines up on the start line on the final day of competition in Paris, she will know exactly who’s alongside her. She’s unlikely to look in the lanes either side, but if she does she’ll see Fisher. And vice-versa.
Fisher is very open with the pressure she feels lining up in those huge races. And the Olympics final, against a fellow countrywoman, the greatest of all time, will only add to that pressure.
For the neutral, the Kiwi fan sitting at home, it really is the perfect recipe. Two elite, champion paddlers, going at each other for every stroke over 500 metres.
So, again, set the alarm, clear the diary, find the comfy part of the couch.
The countdown is on to what could very well be one of the great races at the Paris Olympics. An all-Kiwi duel.
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