Analysis: Labour is pacing itself in Opposition — but does its softly-softly strategy run the risk of political oblivion, asks 1News political reporter Felix Desmarais.
Chris Hipkins cut a lonely figure, driving himself to an animal rescue shelter in Upper Hutt two weeks ago.
His visit to HUHA (Helping You Help Animals) on a relatively quiet Thursday morning in early April contained considerably less fanfare than his excursions six months before, in the final throes of the 2023 election campaign.
Just one camera operator showed up to watch him pet dogs and miniature ponies, wandering about grassy hillocks in chinos, sneakers and plaid.
But last October of course, he was still Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, accompanied by a media throng, assorted acolytes, the Diplomatic Protection Service, a chauffeur and a Crown limousine.
It's a place Hipkins and his party say they want to get back to, but sometimes it's difficult to see how much, and whether it's a party and leader in shape to capitalise on the Government's poor polling.
While humbled by the election result and losing the trappings — and attention — a prime minister attracts, insiders say Labour is focused on the marathon three-year term, rather than the sprint.
There's a quiet confidence about the party, but it could risk falling into complacency. It would be a failure of the party and especially of Hipkins if the party cannot capitalise on the ire of the public evident in this poll — and build on it.
Labour's MPs were asked on Tuesday what kind of energy the party had. The answer, somewhat predictably, was "lots".
Asked on Tuesday whether Labour's opposition strategy was effective, Hipkins said it was.
"Our MPs are working hard and I think they are putting Government ministers under pressure in the House with their questioning, and we'll continue to do that," he said.
The Labour leader says he's going to lead the party in the next election. (Source: 1News)
"We also are working behind the scenes around making sure that we've got our own house in order — making sure that we've got some new ideas, that we're reconnecting with the community so that come the next election it won't be a re-run of the 2023 election, it will be a different campaign."
Asked if it was energetic enough, Hipkins said "absolutely".
He said notwithstanding polls like this week's, the public would likely give the new Government the benefit of the doubt at this stage in the electoral cycle.
He said he would "absolutely" lead the campaign into the next election.
In the same way that Labour lost the election, rather than National won it (especially since it needed the crutch of two other parties to make up the numbers), Labour did not win this poll. The Government parties lost it. And some might say it found Labour asleep on the job.
But party insiders say they're going for bang for their buck, rather than the barking-at-every-passing-car approach.
Those insiders tell me Labour, its communications team naturally much slimmer now than in government, is trying to focus on issues that best communicate Labour "values". What those are exactly is subjective and depends on the political leaning of the assessor. But in practice, to the party, that means issues that affect everyday people — school lunches, disabilities issues and job cuts.
So they are "listening" as Hipkins says. Taking their (election defeat) medicine.
The strategy is: Year one — shut up and listen, reconnect with the electorate — especially in Auckland. Year two: roll out the policies based on all that listening and reconnecting business. Year three: put it into high gear to roll into the election. Pony up.
It seems Labour are hyper aware they can't be seen to be anti-everything — especially when they want to be seen as the "positive" alternative to the coalition.
Labour leader responds to union demonstrations planned for May 1. (Source: Breakfast)
As Hipkins acknowledged on Monday, he's aware an Opposition leader always takes a hit in the preferred prime minister stakes because they need to be more critical than the prime minister. It's a fine line — effective opposition, while not over-egging it. The ghost of Simon Bridges' political career no doubt haunts the third floor of Parliament where Labour has been exiled.
No number of baby yaks could rehabilitate that political persona.
Maybe ponies and dogs — and a bit of pace-setting — might be the trick.
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