Analysis: The three coalition leaders all have plenty to ponder after a spoiler of a poll, writes political editor Maiki Sherman.
The Prime Minister will be feeling the pressure of political office this week.
Christopher Luxon — who is openly competitive by nature — will absolutely hate his Government’s latest scorecard. The public has delivered a resounding boo from the bleachers as voters indicate they are slowly losing the faith.
For a coalition that’s only been in government for five months, such a hiss from the electorate is nothing short of devastating.
The latest 1News Verian Poll suggests that National, ACT, and NZ First would be out of power if an election were held now. In fact, Winston Peters and his entire caucus would be exiled from Parliament yet again.
It’s hard to think of a worse result for a first term government so soon after being elected.
John Key’s government in 2015 and Helen Clark’s government of 2006 had similar poll results — but they were both third-term administrations at the time.
It would be easy to pin this latest poll result entirely on NZ First’s failure to meet the 5% threshold. It would be equally as easy to dismiss the numbers as nothing more than a one-off.
To do either would be a mistake.
Victims of a negative vibe?
None of the three governing parties have much to be happy about in this poll. It will take all three party leaders to ensure their mandate as a credible government doesn’t come crumbling down.
National has dipped by two points and in turn given crucial ground back to Labour who, having been in the political wilderness, has reappeared in the more respectable 30s. But this is very much a case of National losing support rather than Labour winning it back.
Luxon’s personal popularity as preferred Prime Minister has also dropped by two points.
This is despite his own social media presence going into overdrive. While many voters will be fans of a more personable view of Luxon, he will soon learn there is no substitute for substance. The Prime Minister cannot TikTok his way out of negative headlines.
The Government has ploughed through a tonne of policy to date. But the overarching vibe is negative. In its first 100 days, much of the coalition’s work was scrapping and repealing initiatives by the previous Labour government.
When the time finally came to focus on the Government’s own agenda it was more of the same bleak optics: cracking down on beneficiaries, shrinking entitlement rules for disability payments, potentially reducing free lunches in schools, resurrecting the Three Strikes legislation, going after gangs with a proposed patch ban, and a controversial fast-track bill going through select committee.
All those issues are inherently negative and force the Prime Minister to burn up much of his airtime and capital defending such positions.
Whether those policies will have a significant impact on the country overall is arguable. Meanwhile, they further isolate specific parts of our communities.
A pessimistic outlook
The latest 1News Verian poll is disastrous for New Zealand First, which would be out of Parliament based on the numbers. (Source: 1News)
However, it’s not so much that the electorate doesn’t support a tougher approach — many voters will back it. The problem is more that voters have been given nothing to look forward to.
At a time when people are doing it tough with the crushing cost of living, voters want to feel inspired and encouraged.
The constant deficit mindset is a buzz kill. The current narrative is focused too much on punching down and asking everyone to do more with less.
Voters cannot even look forward to a tax cut without almost every economist across the country warning now isn’t the right time.
When it comes to the economic outlook, an area where National usually offers voters reassurance, the 1News Verian Poll shows a 7% increase in those who think our financial situation will get worse.
Bundled together, it is a depressing reality the Government itself is now being forced to wear.
While the coalition may rightly have its eye on the long-term benefits, it will need to do more to convince the electorate of the same sacrifice. Failure to do so risks further revolt.
Culture war fatigue?
And we haven’t even mentioned the words race or Māori yet. But that too could be cause for some polling pain for National’s coalition partners.
Voters are likely tiring of the continuing culture war, the latest instalment being NZ First and ACT teaming up against the Waitangi Tribunal and Māori Land Court.
Peters also created a political sandstorm when he compared alleged comments by Te Pāti Māori over superior DNA to what was seen in Nazi Germany.
Peters’ remarks garnered contentious headlines both here and overseas. While such politics may have paid off for NZ First on the campaign trail, as a governing party and Deputy Prime Minister, it could be viewed as reckless and unnecessary.
Peters likes to remind the media that he "won" the battle, returning his party to Parliament and to public favour. But such outbursts may only risk losing the war. That war, which is largely internal, is ensuring Peters and his party don’t implode and land themselves back outside of Parliament after one term in government – not an unfamiliar fate for NZ First.
Peters has so far defied critics who warned he would be the downfall of any coalition. In contrast, he seems to be working with reliable integrity.
He has also outworked most around the Cabinet table through a gruelling overseas schedule which has largely met with success.
But as one notable political commentator has already pointed out, Winston Peters the global statesman is not entirely the same as Winston Peters the scorned political leader.
Peters’ contempt for the media — and Labour, for that matter — is the hangover that just won’t go away. He would do well to be as strategic locally as he is globally.
A tricky transition
Meanwhile, David Seymour finds himself in much the same position.
He is a political leader who has not yet made the transition from opposition to government.
During the election campaign, there was a shift in the ACT Party leader’s demeanour. His days as a carefree and charismatic opposition MP have somewhat dissipated to a more irritable and less tolerant Government Minister.
Seymour has allowed himself to be distracted by petty politics — at times, lashing out pre-emptively and almost always unnecessarily.
It’s behaviour that has recently seen him accused of undermining Christopher Luxon — or vice versa, depending on who you ask.
Nonetheless, public potshots between coalition partners can never be a good thing. It is even more concerning when it involves the Prime Minister.
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