India's rapid economic growth has seen it emerge as a significant geopolitical power that political and economic experts say could see it one day match, or even surpass, that of its super-power neighbour China.
The latest World Bank figures put India's population at 1.42 billion in 2022 when it surpassed China's 1.41 billion — making it the new, and most populous nation in the world.
And its economy is not far behind. The International Monetary Fund currently has it sitting 5th in the world in terms of GDP, sitting just behind Japan, Germany, China and the US, with predictions it could climb to 3rd in the world by 2027.
AUT University economics and finance lecturer Rahul Sen said India is one of the fastest growing economies today. Key factors he attributes to its growth include the current government's efforts to ease the process; and investment, both foreign and domestic, into infrastructure, business and the workforce.
"All of these factors have enhanced the confidence of not just the government, but also the average Indians that they can aspire to be a developed nation by 100 years of independence [2047]," he said.
Sen said India will also want to position itself strategically within the Asia-Pacific region. "India's core strategic interests are very much there within the Asia-Pacific region, and certainly I see India as being a very important driver of growth in the long-term future."
While relationships between India and China have been tense in recent years, most notably in 2020 when tensions gave way to multiple clashes along the Sino-Indian border, Sen said its neighbour remains a key trading partner.
"From India's perspective, it's around who is willing to partner with us in the long term for our development."
But despite India's success, the real challenge will be bridging the rural-urban divide "to bring both of them together on that path to development, particularly when you are looking at long-term aspirations and goals".
"What is important is that the momentum, the sustainability of this growth has to be maintained because that's the only way the fruits of this growth can be shared by everybody. And I think this is what the current government's thought is; that this is a trickle down growth process," Sen said.
India's High Commissioner to New Zealand Neeta Bhushan said India's significant economic transformation has seen it play a major role on the global stage.
She said among its successes is India's place as a key manufacturing hub with a large number of units being set up in various parts of India, and as an IT hub, a hub for startups, digitisation, as well as research and innovation.
The interest from multinationals like Apple and Microsoft are a big part of what's driven the rapid growth of areas like Bengaluru, which has been dubbed India's Silicon Valley.
Bhushan attributed the simplification of laws and regulations as having enhanced the ease of doing business.
"... which led to foreign investors and domestic businesses being able to expand in a much better fashion," she said. "In addition to that, the skilled manpower in India, a lot of investment has been made in upskilling the people of India."
India's economic growth and its large population base is something New Zealand is keen to tap into. Trade Minister Todd McClay said it's a relationship the National-ACT-NZ First Government wants to tap into.
"We think the relationship has been underdone. It's a really big population that's starting to do trade deals with other countries around the world. Ultimately there's opportunities for New Zealand exporters, but before we can get to a stage where we are talking about a trade arrangement we have got to invest in that relationship."
He remains confident a trade deal is something the Government could see in place by the end of its term — a confidence not reflected by other experts who say it could be tough.
New Zealand is a big dairy exporter and officials would want to see that on the table of any deal, but that seems unlikely — if the deal between Australia and India that excluded dairy is any indicator.
McClay said on a recent trip to India officials had made the point that while New Zealand was a small country, "India is very, very big, and it's not that far away from having enough dairy to feed their own population, so having good friends like New Zealand is worth pursuing."
University of St Andrew's Asian Affairs professor Chris Ogden said at the moment it's more a case of countries needing to prove to India their value than the other way around.
"At the moment India is being courted than them being the courtier. It wants other countries to go to it and explain why they are of significance."
And he said any relationship between India and New Zealand will likely hold more significance here than there.
"New Zealand can be a major partner, but New Zealand will always be some kind of junior partner [compared to bigger economies]."
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